146
FXUS64 KFWD 301934
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 151 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/
/Through Wednesday/

For most, just a dry, humid, and warm forecast through tonight.
Isolated showers driven by some weak ascent from an approaching
shortwave and enhanced warm advection already were developing just
north of the Red River. However, we`ll be watching areas to our
west and northwest later this afternoon along a surface dryline
which is currently west of North-Central Texas near the TX/NM
state line. As this feature mixes eastward into Northwest and
West-Central TX, as well as the western Big Country, any weak low
level cap should easily be broken as a stronger shortwave arrives
from West TX and Northeast Mexico during peak heating. Our Big
Country areas are also seeing the best insolation and should peak
around 90 degrees later this afternoon, so any isolated to widely
scattered storms should be able to maintain into mainly western
North TX. The bulk of any 15%-30% coverage of storms should
remain primarily north of I-20 to parts of the Red River possibly
as far east as I-35 or even Hwy 75 and the Sherman-Denison areas
as we progress into and through the evening hours.

The best surface-based CAPE between 1500-2000 J/KG will correlate
with steepening lapse rates > 7 degC/km. With effective
northwesterly deep layer shear between 30-40 kts, some discrete to
possibly a multi-cellular storm mode are being advertised at
different magnitudes by the CAMs. Isolated strong to brief severe
storms with primarily large hail and gusty/damaging winds would be
the primary hazards. However, a tornado or two can`t be
completely ruled out west of US-281 with more discrete storms and
rich surface dew points near 70F resulting in relatively low LCLs
within the updraft regions of said storms. Any storms that can
last as far east as I-35 and particularly the northern Metroplex
to the Red Red River would likely be sub-severe, but remain strong
as they enter a relatively more stable boundary layer and weaker
mid level lapse rates aloft. Gusty winds and smaller hail would
still be possible with more robust storms. Otherwise, any anvil
debris will combine with another overnight stratus surge and
southerly winds remaining up between 10 and 20 mph for for breezy
and humid night with lows Wednesday remaining in the mid 60s in
our East TX areas to near/around 70 degrees elsewhere.

Patchy fog is possible through mid morning Wednesday, but it
would be very similar to this past morning and nothing that would
cause much delay in travel or outdoor plans. Wednesday will see
plenty of cloudiness that will keep highs capped in the lower to
mid 80s for most, except the Big Country areas once again pushing
the 90 degree mark. Though ripples of mid level energy maintain
overhead, the slow warm up will likely help the EML/low level
capping inversion remain strong enough to keep chances for showers
and storm fairly low until late in the afternoon. A few strong to
severe storms may evolve across Central Texas as a strong
southern stream shortwave moves across South-Central into E and SE
TX and helps to enhance large-scale ascent across these areas
where a deeper moist axis will exist. So at least an isolated
severe weather risk for especially large hail would occur as this
shortwave helps steepen mid level lapse to/above 8 degC/km. 0-1km
S flow around 10-15 kts also would suggest that a tornado would
be possible as well late in the day, though more widespread storms
will likely hold off until Wednesday night as another shortwave
further N interacts with a strong LLJ and increasing low level
warm advection. This will be discussed in further detail in the
long term discussion later this afternoon.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Night and Beyond/

Bottom Line: An unsettled weather pattern will lead to periodic
chances for thunderstorms through the end of the week. Severe
weather and heavy rainfall will be possible at times, potentially
leading to additional flooding concerns.

Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop off a sharpening
dryline across West Texas late Wednesday afternoon and gradually
progress east toward North and Central Texas late Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night. Ascent associated with a passing
shortwave and rich moisture transport on the nose of a 25-35 kt
low-level jet will likely sustain this convection as it enters our
area and may lead to additional thunderstorm development ahead of
the primary cluster of thunderstorms during the overnight hours.
Abundant moisture marked by surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and
lower 70s and PWATs in the 1.7-1.9" range (approaching
climatological maxima) will support heavy rainfall as this
activity increases in coverage Wednesday night. 20-30 kt storm
motions should be progressive enough to keep a more widespread
flood event from occurring. However, if there are continuous
signals for back-building and/or training thunderstorms in the
newer high-resolution guidance, the threat for localized flash
flooding may increase rapidly, especially with region-wide
saturated soils from the recent rainfall. As of now, a widespread
0.5"-1.5" seems likely with a 10-20% chance for 3+" through
Thursday morning, primarily along/south of I-20 and along/east of
I-35. 20-30kts of effective bulk shear will keep the threat for
widespread severe weather on the low end, but 2000-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE will support at least a marginal threat for severe hail in
a few of the stronger cells.

Most of this activity will push into East Texas by late Thursday
morning leading to a relative lull in thunderstorm activity for
much of Thursday. Additional chances for thunderstorms will
arrive late Thursday into Friday as a cold front approaches from
the north. The spatial coverage of convection late Thursday into
Friday will depend on the southern extent of the frontal passage.
A majority of medium-range guidance keeps the frontal boundary
near the Red River, subsequently keeping the better rain chances
along/north of I-20. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
seems possible over the weekend, with guidance highlighting the
potential for a more potent shortwave entering the Southern Plains
in the Saturday-Sunday timeframe. There are still timing and
location discrepancies, so keep an eye on the forecast through the
week!

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 108 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/
/18z TAFs/

Stubborn MVFR and patchy IFR cigs should gradually improve/scatter
out to VFR by 20z with southerly winds between 12-15 kts with a
few gusts > 20 kts by mid-late afternoon. Winds will diurnally
back around to the SE near 15 kts this evening. Though not
advertised attm due to low confidence and probability, a VCSH or
VCTS for isolated "conditional" SHRA/TSRA may be needed. Again,
this is very conditional on isolated storm development well W-NW
of the area near the dryline, then outflow and development off
this outflow with a weak mid level impulse moving E over the D10
airspace.

Otherwise, winds will back southerly 10-15 kts overnight with MVFR
cigs arriving into the DFW D10 airports just before 12z
Wednesday with some IFR possible by mid morning, but returning to
MVFR by 18z, at which time southerly winds will will average near
15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  83  68  81  69 /  20  20  70  80  50
Waco                68  82  69  80  69 /   0  30  80  70  40
Paris               65  83  66  77  66 /   5  30  50  80  70
Denton              68  82  67  80  67 /  20  20  70  70  50
McKinney            68  82  67  79  67 /  10  30  70  80  50
Dallas              70  83  69  81  69 /  10  20  70  80  50
Terrell             67  82  67  78  67 /   0  30  70  90  50
Corsicana           68  84  70  80  69 /   0  30  70  80  40
Temple              69  82  69  80  69 /   0  30  70  60  30
Mineral Wells       67  83  67  83  66 /  20  20  70  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$