771
FXUS64 KFWD 021843
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
143 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday afternoon/

Mostly cloudy conditions continue over much of our area as the
bulk of this morning`s precipitation already moved towards
southeast Texas. A fairly dry afternoon is expected for most of
us, but a few scattered showers and storms may develop late
afternoon and evening across portions of North Texas. This will be
ahead of an approaching low pressure system/cold front currently
over West Texas. This system is expected to slide eastward this
evening and tonight and may result in another round of scattered
storms mainly west of I-35 and along the Red River. The greatest
chances for severe weather remains west of Highway 281 this
evening and tonight, but if storms are able to grow upscale as
they move east/southeast into Central Texas, the threat may shift
farther east. Confidence remain low of how widespread this
activity will be given the weak flow aloft and the lack of strong
ascent. But at least scattered showers and storms will continue
through Friday morning before most of the activity moves east of
our area. If any lingering boundary remains near our area, there
could be some additional isolated convection during the afternoon
hours but confidence remains low (less than 20%).

Otherwise, cloudy conditions will keep our temperatures below
average on Friday as well with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /New/ /Issued 149 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024/
/Friday through Wednesday/

Friday through Sunday will remain unsettled with multiple
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. The good news
is that the overall severe weather threat will be low. The passage
of an upper trough across the Central Plains Thursday night will
send a weak cold front southward Friday. The front is progged to move
only partially through North Texas before retreating back to the
north Friday afternoon and evening. Lift supplied by the front, in
combination with larger scale lift from the passage of a subtle
shortwave, will result in scattered showers and storms. Our
confidence in the movement of the front is low so we will keep
PoPs in the 20 to 40 percent range both Friday and Friday evening.
There should be a brief lull in precipitation overnight Friday
when the initial shortwave passes to the east and front
temporarily moves north of the Red River. The front will return on
Saturday once another shortwave in the northern branch of the jet
stream pushes through the Central Plains. This secondary push
will be stronger than the first, sending the front deeper into the
CWA. Lift along the front will bring another chance of showers
and thunderstorms, especially late Saturday night into Sunday
morning when a shortwave rotates across the region. Once the
shortwave passes to the east, storms will temporarily end but will
return again on Monday with the approach of the dryline from the
west and yet another shortwave. We will keep PoPs on Monday low
for now since a cap of warm air will likely be in place. Once the
early week shortwave moves to the east, the upper pattern will
become more zonal which should limit convection, but with plenty
of low level moisture in place, any subtle disturbance could
produce a shower or storm.

Temperatures Friday through the weekend will be near seasonal normals
with highs in the lower and middle 80s and lows in the 60s.
Southwesterly winds will return to about the western half of the
forecast areas Tuesday and Wednesday pushing afternoon highs into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Thunderstorm chances this afternoon and tonight.
Another round of MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight into Friday.

Widespread cloud cover continues this afternoon, but most of the
ceilings remain VFR with southerly winds around 8-12 kts. The
main concern this afternoon will be the potential for a few
storms  impacting some of the DFW Metroplex sites. Based on the
latest high-res models, isolated storms may develop near the area
between 22- 02Z. Severe weather is not expected with this
activity, but occasional lighting can be expected. Another round
of showers and storms may develop overnight, but confidence
remain low on how widespread this activity will be. For now, we
kept the VCTS from 06- 11Z with most of the activity moving
east/southeast after that. Otherwise, MVFR/IFR ceilings return
after midnight tonight and persist through at least mid-morning
Friday.

Sanchez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  83  69  81  68 /  50  20  30  50  60
Waco                67  82  69  81  68 /  50  30  20  40  40
Paris               66  81  66  79  66 /  50  30  20  50  40
Denton              65  82  66  80  65 /  50  20  30  50  60
McKinney            66  82  67  80  66 /  50  30  30  50  50
Dallas              68  83  69  82  68 /  50  30  20  50  50
Terrell             66  81  67  81  66 /  50  30  20  50  50
Corsicana           68  82  69  82  68 /  50  30  20  40  40
Temple              67  81  69  81  67 /  50  30  20  30  40
Mineral Wells       64  82  66  82  65 /  60  20  30  50  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$