118
FXUS64 KFWD 292014
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
314 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1231 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/
/This Afternoon through Tuesday Night/

Thick morning fog and low clouds continue to erode this afternoon
with sustained heating. While visibilities have improved across
the region, there are still some pockets of thicker low cloud
cover. Until these erode this afternoon, temperatures will be 5-10
degrees cooler beneath the clouds. Otherwise, most areas will see
sunny skies by mid afternoon with temperatures in the lower 80s.

While we could see some additional fog develop later tonight,
southerly winds 5-10 mph may keep the boundary layer sufficiently
mixed to inhibit dense fog. Weak shortwave ridging will persist
across the Southern Plains through Tuesday and should keep things
relatively quiet across North Texas, but southerly winds will pull
moisture northward and a dryline will sharpen to our west. Latest
model guidance does suggest that our ridging will pass to the east
late in the day and weak ascent will overspread the Plains. The
GFS is particularly bullish on thunderstorm development along the
dryline late tomorrow afternoon, but it does have some support
from the hi-res guidance. For now, we`ll keep PoPs at 20% and
continue to monitor. Any storms that develop might be able to
spread into our western counties during the late evening.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Onward/

A shortwave trough will sweep across the Rockies on Wednesday
before lifting northeast through the Plains on Thursday. This will
provide a couple of opportunities for thunderstorms, the first
being Wednesday night associated with the dryline, and the second
being on Thursday as an attendant cold front pushes through. Good
instability will be in place for both events. Weak flow aloft may
mitigate the severe weather threat for the Wednesday night
convection, with effective shear values holding in the 15 to 20 kt
range. Values will increase to near 35 kt on Thursday as the
shortwave crosses the Plains, which could support severe
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. All activity will push
south of the region Thursday night or Friday morning as the front
heads for South Central and Southeast Texas.

Slightly cooler weather can be expected this weekend in the wake
of the front. The upper level pattern will remain unsettled,
however, with the next shortwave shifting from the Rockies to the
Plains Friday night. This feature will help ignite scattered
showers and storms across the Big Country, which will enter our
western zones Friday night. The front will be stationary to our
south, keeping storms elevated in nature and largely sub-severe,
though 8+ degree mid level lapse rates may allow for large hail in
a few cells. A shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet will
then lift northeast from West Texas into the Southern Plains
Saturday night, bringing another potential round of elevated
showers and storms, which may also be capable of hail.

The front will then return to the north as a warm front on
Sunday as an upper low approaches from the west and a lee-side
surface trough strengthens. Scattered light rain showers and
perhaps an isolated storm or two may accompany the front as it
crosses the CWA, with activity shifting north of the Red River
along with the front Sunday afternoon. The next rain chances will
be Sunday night or Monday as the low traverses the Plains and
generates more dryline convection. Temperatures will otherwise
return to slightly above-normal values next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1231 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Low clouds and fog have generally eroded across the region,
although some IFR cigs still persist to the south and southeast of
the D10 airspace. VFR should prevail through the period with light
and variable winds becoming southerly later this evening. While we
could have some visibility reductions early Tuesday morning, we`ll
keep things at 5SM BR for now. South winds will increase to 10-15
kt on Tuesday with VFR prevailing outside of morning fog.

Dunn

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  87  70  84  69 /   0   0   5  30  50
Waco                62  84  69  82  69 /   0   0   5  40  50
Paris               60  83  64  83  67 /   0   0   0  30  30
Denton              61  86  68  82  67 /   0   0   5  20  50
McKinney            61  84  68  82  68 /   0   0   5  30  50
Dallas              63  86  69  84  69 /   0   0   5  30  50
Terrell             61  84  67  83  68 /   0   0   5  40  50
Corsicana           64  86  69  84  70 /   0   0   0  40  50
Temple              62  85  70  83  69 /   0   5   5  40  50
Mineral Wells       62  88  68  84  68 /   0   0  10  20  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$