208
FXUS64 KFWD 290628
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
128 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Monday and Tuesday/

Thunderstorms have finally exited our area. A cluster of training
storms continues across Southeast Texas--just south our forecast
area--so many of our southeasternmost counties will hear plenty of
thunder through the pre-dawn hours. While most of this activity
will remain to our south, a few storms could clip our southernmost
counties before sunrise. In the wake of the wet weekend and the
lack of a dry airmass moving through, fog is expected across most
of the area this morning. We have a local rule of thumb coined the
"shortwave rule" that states when rain falls, there is no cold
front or other dry airmass passage, and light winds/clear skies
are forecast overnight, fog will occur. Patchy dense fog has
already developed just east of the cirrus blow off from the
aforementioned storms. Expect the fog and very low stratus bank
to expand through the morning and cover most of our area during
the Monday morning commute.

We have issued a Dense Fog advisory for much of our forecast area
through 9 AM this morning. It is pretty rare for our office to
issue a Dense Fog Advisory in late April. In fact, we have only
issued 6 Dense Fog Advisories on or after this date since 2006.
Visibility will improve within an couple hours of sunrise, with
rapidly improving conditions by the mid to late morning.

Mostly clear skies and light winds are expected this afternoon
with highs in the mid 80s. Despite it already feeling muggy,
south flow will return tonight and draw warm/moist air north.
Stratus will creep north early Tuesday and should should dissipate
in the late morning. Tomorrow`s afternoon highs should be a couple
degrees higher than today, however the extra moisture will result
in heat index values peaking in the upper 80s to low 90s. Most
will be dry, but there is a 20% chance of an isolated warm
advection shower across the southeast. A dryline will develop well
to our west that should initiate thunderstorms late in the day
near Childress. There is a less than 10% chance that a storm will
be able to continue long enough into the evening to move into our
forecast area late Tuesday.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 259 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/
/Monday Night Onward/

Quiet weather will continue Monday night into Tuesday, but a weak
disturbance aloft will help ignite thunderstorms along the
dryline Tuesday afternoon and evening. The dryline will be located
over the Big Country, where convective initiation should take
place. Storms would likely end up being isolated in nature thanks
to the presence of a strong capping inversion, but a storm or two
may still reach severe thresholds somewhere west of I-35.

Better storm chances will begin on Wednesday as an upper trough
approaches from the northwest. Height falls in advance of the
trough will lead to more thunderstorm development along the
dryline. A cap will still be in place, but and added upper level
support should help convection overcome the cap, leading to
scattered storms across mainly the western half of the region
Wednesday evening. A secondary swath of showers and storms may
enter the southeast counties Wednesday afternoon as an active
sea/gulf breeze enters from the south. The better severe threat
will exist with the dryline convection (west of I-35), while a
lower threat will accompany the seabreeze storms.

The upper trough will drop southeast through the Southern Plains
Thursday through Thursday night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop by Thursday afternoon, and may grow
upscale into a linear MCS while becoming focused along an
attendant cold front. Strong to severe storms will be possible as
activity pushes southeast through the region Thursday night, with
precipitation exiting to the southeast Friday morning with the
front.

Another lull in the active weather pattern will take place on
Friday, which should actually end up being a nice post-frontal
day with drier air and highs in the 70s. Clouds will rapidly
increase on Saturday, however, as a shortwave embedded in the
subtropical jet approaches from the west. The front will again
become focus for convective development as it lifts north as a
warm front on Saturday. The severe weather potential is
uncertain, however, as it may become dependent on how rapidly the
warm sector arrives. Whatever the case, rain chances will continue
into next Sunday, followed by warmer and drier weather to start
the following week as ridging develops aloft.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

LIFR ceilings and visibility are forecast at all TAF terminals
this morning. The fog/stratus bank has already engulfed all of
Central Texas and will slowly expand through the pre-dawn hours.
The lowest visibility should be in the 1-2 hours straddling
sunrise, but there is potential that LIFR visibility develops at
the D10 or ACT terminals before 09Z. If this takes place, latent
heat warming could improve visibility sooner than the TAFs
indicate. Regardless, flying conditions will improve a couple
hours after sunrise, with visibility improving first. Low
ceilings will likely take a few more hours to lift/scatter, but
VFR should prevail at all terminals by 15-17Z. Light winds will
continue through the valid TAF period, with prevailing south flow
returning in the late afternoon.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  85  70  85  70 /   0   5  20  30  30
Waco                64  83  69  82  70 /   0  10  10  40  30
Paris               60  83  66  83  67 /   0   5  10  40  30
Denton              63  84  67  84  67 /   0   5  30  30  40
McKinney            62  83  68  83  68 /   0   5  20  30  30
Dallas              64  85  69  85  70 /   0   5  20  30  30
Terrell             62  83  68  83  68 /   0  10  10  40  30
Corsicana           63  85  69  85  70 /   0  10  10  40  30
Temple              64  85  69  82  69 /   0  10  10  40  30
Mineral Wells       62  86  68  84  68 /   0   5  30  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ091>094-
101>105-116>121-130>134-143>145-156>159.

&&

$$