Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 182348 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
648 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018


.AVIATION...
A southerly low level jet will develop tonight which will bring
MVFR stratus into Waco around 09z and into the Metroplex
around 12z. Some isolated high-based showers/thunderstorms may
move into the I-35 corridor between 06z-12z. With the dry air
between 3000 and 15000 feet, most, if not all of the precipitation
will evaporate before reaching the ground. There could be some
turbulence due to evaporation. Have kept a VCSH in the TAFs for
the 06-12z period. Ceilings should improve late morning and with
deeper mixing the stratus layer should mix out by midday (17z).
Southerly winds around 15 knots will prevail with some gusts to 25
knots likely 19/1700z through 20/0000z.

58

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 311 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018/
/Through Tonight/

An upper ridge is in control over North and Central Texas this
afternoon, contributing to the warmest day of the year so far. As
of 3 PM, the record high of 95 had been tied at Waco, while the
record of 96 at DFW remains above the current temperature of 94.
Both records remain in jeopardy of being broken (or at least tied
at DFW) over the next hour or two.

While the ridge will hold strong through this afternoon, it will
break down a bit this evening as a shortwave swings through
southwest flow aloft through West Texas. This disturbance is
responsible for the current initiation of storms across the Texas
Panhandle region. Ascent on the eastern periphery of the trough
should lead to an increase in elevated showers farther east this
evening, some of which should enter our western zones after 6 or 7
PM. These will be based around 10 kft or higher with very dry air
below. As a result, only light rain or virga is expected from
this activity, but with an abundance of caution, have held on to
a mention of isolated thunder. Showers may linger through
daybreak Saturday morning before finally dissipating as they move
to the east and outrun any lift. Otherwise, it will remain warm
and muggy overnight with lows holding in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Clouds will also be on the increase as a thin layer of low-level
moisture surges northward, resulting in low stratus across much of
Central Texas and parts of North Texas by Saturday morning.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 311 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018/
/Saturday through Thursday/

The pattern through the extended will feature broad troughing
across the southwestern U.S. with ridging to the east. North Texas
will remain on the eastern periphery of the better forcing from
embedded disturbances through early next week. Saturday should be
mainly dry across the region although a strong shortwave trough
will be moving into the Plains by afternoon. A deepening surface
low will be located across northern Oklahoma resulting in breezy
southerly winds across North Texas. As the shortwave ejects
eastward, a cold front will slide south into the Plains by
tomorrow night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop along the front, mainly across Oklahoma and along the
dryline across northwest Texas late Saturday afternoon and
evening. Some of these may make it into parts of North Texas,
especially north and west the Metroplex, well after dark. Highs on
Saturday should be a few degrees cooler than today given that the
ridge axis shifts a little farther eastward.

Sunday into early next week will continue to feature above normal
temperatures with periodic rain chances during the afternoon into
the late evening hours as we remain in between deeper troughing to
the west and stronger ridging to the east. Embedded disturbances
in the southwest flow aloft combined with a relatively weak cap
should lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of
Texas into early next week. Coverage of showers and storms will
remain 20-40% each afternoon.

As we get into the middle and latter part of next week, upper
ridging will build back across the region leading to lower
precipitation chances and warmer temperatures.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  93  72  88  73 /  20   5  20  20  20
Waco                72  94  72  89  70 /  20   5  10  30  20
Paris               68  91  69  87  68 /  10   0  20  20  10
Denton              70  93  70  87  69 /  20   5  20  20  20
McKinney            71  91  71  87  70 /  20   5  20  20  20
Dallas              75  93  74  89  73 /  20   5  20  20  20
Terrell             74  93  71  88  71 /  20   5  10  20  20
Corsicana           71  94  71  89  71 /  20   5  10  30  20
Temple              71  93  71  88  69 /  20   5  10  30  20
Mineral Wells       68  94  69  86  68 /  20   5  30  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/24



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