174
FXUS62 KMFL 142340
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
740 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 729 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity over the interior
sections of South Florida will quickly diminish as the evening
progresses. This will allow for mainly dry conditions across most
of the region during the overnight hours. While prefrontal
convection over Central Florida will most likely stay north of
Lake Okeechobee through daybreak, an isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled closer to daybreak. Low temperatures
tonight will range from the lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee
region to the lower 80s along the east and west coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Mid-level flow will become a bit more westerly tomorrow as the
northern stream shortwave increases in latitude just a bit. This
will open up a pathway for warm mid-level air from the Mexican
Plateau to advect across the Gulf over south Florida. Southerly
low-level flow today will advect abnormally warm maritime air
across south Florida, but more directly tomorrow as winds take on
a more southwesterly component as the surface low shifts east to
the Mid-Atlantic coast. The anomalous SSTs and near surface air
will surge an atypically warm and moist airmass across south
Florida. This will most likely result in heat advisory conditions
for a least a portion of south Florida tomorrow as heat indices
exceed 105-108 degrees. While dewpoints will be higher along the
west coast, temperatures will be higher along the east - having
the same overall effect on the heat indices and thus the
widespread threat.

As far as convection is concerned, this afternoon outflow from
storms to our north will interact with the seabreezes and initiate
convection across the Lake Region and Palm Beach county. Given the
still somewhat cool mid-level temperatures, presence of 30ish
knots of deep-layer shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates, storms
that develop have the potential to produce marginally severe hail
and damaging winds. The front associated with the aforementioned
shortwave will draw closer to north-central Florida tomorrow and a
little more convection may drift into the Lake Region, but in
general the isolated to scattered threat for storms will continue
tomorrow. The weakening dynamics and warming mid-level temps may
yield a slightly lower severe threat tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A frontal boundary could enter south central Florida by Thursday,
briefly allowing a window for some increased rain chances but the
weak front lacks the support for more widespread activity which
could provide more substantial relief from the heat. Temperatures
aloft will cool to around -9 to -10C on Wednesday into Thursday
which could support an isolated strong storm or two.

The main story through this forecast period will be the potential
for hazardous heat which will linger through most of the weekend.
Most of South Florida could experience heat necessitating at
least a Heat Advisory through Saturday and this potential will be
monitored through the week. Afternoon high temperatures are
expected to be in the 90s area- wide each afternoon. Lower to mid
90s will be more likely for coastal areas with portions of
interior South Florida potentially approaching the upper 90s or
low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro
mid to late week could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even
portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s.
This could lead to a period of several days where relentless
sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief overnight could lead
to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low associated with our
aforementioned boundary begins to exit into the Atlantic off the
Mid- Atlantic states with the potential for a southward
advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move
into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the
heat late in the period. If the front stalls to the north, the
excessive heat risk could linger through the end of the forecast
period as southerly flow continues.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds
will gradually become more southerly during the overnight hours
and will diminish to around 10 kts. These winds will then increase
out of the SW by the middle of Wednesday morning across all
terminals and they will be gusty at times through the afternoon
hours. Shower and thunderstorm activity may increase late in the
afternoon mainly near KAPF and KPBI as a weakening frontal
boundary approaches from the northwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Southerly flow around Advisory levels will continue through today,
turning southwest and remaining elevated through tomorrow as the
pressure gradient remains tight with low pressure passing through
the Southeast. Cautionary conditions should continue into the end
of the week until the low completely passes.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

The high rip current risk today may have to extend into tomorrow
as winds only slowly subside and onshore flow in the seabreeze
zone continues. The risk for rip currents should lessen towards
the end of the week as the low across the Mid-Atlantic moves
further away.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  96  80  95 /  10  20  20  50
West Kendall     79  96  77  96 /  10  20  20  50
Opa-Locka        80  96  78  96 /  10  20  20  50
Homestead        79  94  78  95 /  10  20  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  81  95  79  94 /  10  20  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  79  96  79  95 /  20  20  30  60
Pembroke Pines   80  96  79  97 /  10  20  20  50
West Palm Beach  77  96  75  94 /  20  40  30  60
Boca Raton       79  95  77  96 /  20  30  40  60
Naples           80  89  78  90 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC