221
FXUS63 KGID 080907
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
407 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s today with a few
  showers/storms possible for northern portions of the area
  this afternoon.

- Scattered showers/storms possible again on Thursday.

- Warmer temperatures this weekend with scattered on and off
  chances for precipitation Saturday night through the beginning
  of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Today and Tonight...

A broad upper level low currently sits over the northern Great
Plains, with an associated surface low sitting over North Dakota. As
the low begins to move east and reconnect with the jetstream, the
surface low will slide southeast throughout the day and bring a cold
front to the area this evening. Highs today will be in the upper 60s
to low 70s with westerly winds of 10 to 15 mph.

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible (15 - 25%) this
afternoon across northern portions of the area. Weak instability and
shear will help to prevent storms from becoming strong-severe. Any
shower will quickly come to an end around sunset as temperatures
begin to cool. Precipitation that does fall today is expected
to remain light (under 0.10 inches). Lows tonight will be in the
40s with light northerly winds.


Thursday...

Highs on Thursday will be cooler behind the cold front, with highs
remaining in the 60s for most locations. Northerly winds will be
breezy at times, gusting 20 to 25 mph. Shower and thunderstorm
chances return to the area on Thursday. The most widespread chances
occur Thursday afternoon (15 - 35%) across south central Nebraska.
While showers and thunderstorms will diminish in coverage around
sunset once again, CAM guidance is in agreement that a few
showers/storms could linger till around midnight. Any accumulation
from storms is expected to remain light (under 0.10 inches). Lows
Thursday night will be in the 40s.


Friday and Saturday...

The departing upper level low will become split with a portion of it
moving over the eastern U.S. and combining with a trough dipping
into the upper Midwest, and the other portion becoming cut-off over
the southwestern U.S. A ridge will begin to build over the area on
Friday and Saturday, bringing a period of dry weather with warming
temperatures. Highs on Friday will be in the low 70s, with highs on
Saturday in the mid to upper 70s.


Saturday night Onwards....

The previously cut-off low will rejoin the jetstream Saturday night,
bringing chances (15 - 35%) for showers and thunderstorms to
southwestern portions of the area. Highs on Sunday will continue the
warming trend, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Shower and
thunderstorm chances become more widspread Sunday afternoon and
evening. The warmer weather will continue into next week, with highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s. A series of shortwave troughs will move
through the area to start next week. This will bring scattered, low
probability chances (15 - 35%) for precipitation to the area each
day.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. SCT to BKN mid-
high level clouds will persist overnight, with skies clearing
around sunrise. While uncertain on precipitation, some SCT
cumulus development is possible this afternoon, ending around
sunset. Southwesterly winds will become westerly around sunrise,
and become northwesterly this morning. Gusts will increase this
afternoon, reaching 15-18Kts, with the strongest gusts expected
at EAR. Winds will quickly decrease around sunset, becoming
light and northerly overnight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis