288
FXUS64 KAMA 161144
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
644 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The Panhandles may be in for another round of activity today as
model agreement continues to see the progression of the upper-
level trough through the area. This progression will continue to
see moisture filter into the Panhandles with some of the CAMs
projecting PWAT values above one inch across a majority of the
CWA. This will allow for showers and storms to have better chances
of producing heavier rainfall for the area. However, models are
not too enthused on amounts with most of them giving us around a
half to three quarters of an inch at its best. As for sever
potential, most models are see around 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE
with a couple pockets reaching near the 1500 mark. These values
would be able to help get something near severe criteria, but most
storms may not be able stay sustained due to lack of good shear
across the area. Currently, most models are seeing bulk shear peak
at about 20 to 25kts at best, so we may be in for more pulse like
storms that produce more rain than hail. Unfortunately, storms
and showers themselves, may find it a little difficult to form
tomorrow. The main reason being the ongoing showers that are
occurring this early morning. It is entirely possible that these
showers and storms could overwork the atmosphere and keep the CWA
more stable for the day, which would result in more cloud cover
than showers. Given the potential, have chosen to slightly low the
POPs for the day and stick with the low precipitation amounts

Heading into Friday, weather looks to get drier as models see a
ridge build in behind the trough that afternoon. Warmer conditions
will likely follow with afternoon high temperature going from mid
70s today to low 80s Friday. The only thing that may need to be
watched is a low chance of linger storms in the southeastern
Panhandles early that morning.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

This weekend a ridge is expected to build across the southern
plains bringing a period of mostly stable and fair weather to the
panhandles that will last through mid next week. Two exceptions
to the fair weather may occur during this period first this
weekend the second early midweek. The fist exception look to
occur late on Saturday as a trough in the central plains flattens
the ridge and may allow some moisture into the northern
panhandles. This could lead to isolated rain showers and
thunderstorms if a sufficient amount arrives. If not enough
moisture pushes in then it will result in just increased cloud
cover. The second exception may occur this Tuesday as a trough
ejects out of the desert SW into the central plains flattening the
ridge again. If sufficient amount of moisture manages to makes it
way into the panhandles then isolated rain showers and
thunderstorms may occur. If not then it will just be another round
of clouds. Winds for the weekend and to mid next week look to
follow a standard diurnal trend of gusty during the daytime hours
and weak during the overnight. As for temperatures the panhandles
will be getting hot under the influence of the ridge. This will
see the weekend highs mainly in the 90s with a small chance of the
warmest areas reaching 100. It wont be until the ridge is
flattened out on Tuesday that the highs finally drop. This will
see the mid week highs drop to the 80s and 90s providing a little
relief.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Chances of showers continue to be a possibility for KDHT and KAMA
this afternoon and evening with current confidence seeing impacts
mostly stick with light to moderate rainfall. However, there is
still a low chance for thunderstorm to be develop near or around
these two terminals. Regardless, latest high resolution models
are giving best chances for development around the late afternoon
to early evening time frame of 19 to 22 UTC. Otherwise, look for
some mid to high level could decks to be present throughout the
day at all three terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                71  51  80  54 /  60  50  10   0
Beaver OK                  76  51  84  55 /  20  10   0   0
Boise City OK              70  46  82  52 /  30  20   0   0
Borger TX                  76  53  84  57 /  40  40  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              74  51  83  53 /  50  40   0   0
Canyon TX                  71  51  80  53 /  60  50  10   0
Clarendon TX               71  54  78  55 /  60  60  10   0
Dalhart TX                 69  45  82  49 /  40  30   0   0
Guymon OK                  74  49  83  52 /  20  10   0   0
Hereford TX                72  51  82  54 /  70  60  10   0
Lipscomb TX                74  53  82  57 /  30  30  10   0
Pampa TX                   72  53  80  56 /  40  40  10   0
Shamrock TX                73  54  80  56 /  50  50  20   0
Wellington TX              74  55  80  56 /  60  50  20   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...11