119
FXUS61 KBGM 121938
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
338 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure pushes east of the region this evening.
Clouds will decrease tonight with cool conditions and patchy fog
developing. Warmer temperatures are expected Monday, however
a warm front will push through the area and kick off scattered
showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Another upper level low
moves over the region on Tuesday and Wednesday with more periods
of rain possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM Update

Upper level low pressure continues pushing eastward this
afternoon and this evening, allowing for drier condition to
prevail. Partly cloudy skies are expected for much of tonight
as weak high pressure briefly pushes in. The clearing skies and
light winds should allow for some patchy fog to form, however
clouds will start to increase again by early Monday morning,
which could dissipate fog before sunrise.

A slow moving warm front will push east over the region on
tomorrow. Along this front there will be a period of rain
showers in the morning to early afternoon hours; with more
coverage of showers the further north in Central NY and in the
Finger Lakes Region. NE PA and into the Catskills should stay
mostly dry with perhaps an isolated shower. By tomorrow afternoon,
the warm front should push north of the region. Temperatures
will be much warmer tomorrow with clearing behind the front.
However, some weak instability will develop with some sunshine
peaking through during the after early evening hours. This
will could be enough for a few thunderstorms to develop late in
the day generally from the Southern Tier on northward. Outside
of any showers and thunderstorms, it will be partly sunny with
highs ranging from the low to mid-70s west of I-81, with
mid-60s to around 70 east. After sunset, shower and
thunderstorms will start to decrease in coverage with chances
only possible across the far north in the vicinity of the warm
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update:

With upper level ridging to our east and a warm front to the
north, our region gets placed in a warm sector keeping
conditions dry early Tuesday morning. A slow-moving frontal
boundary will shift eastwards Tuesday afternoon kicking off rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Instability parameters are
weak so not expecting any significant impacts with storms that
form. Otherwise it will be mainly cloudy with highs in the mid
60s to lower 70 and lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. An upper
level low over the midwest approaches the east coast Tuesday
night into Wednesday. As a result the frontal boundary is
expected to stall over our area allowing showers to continue
through Wednesday evening. The upper level low drifts
eastward/away from the area Wednesday night, which will allow
for the coverage of showers to diminish. However, some model
guidance keeps this upper low close enough to have showers
linger around a bit longer. Highs on Wednesday will range in the
mid to upper 60s with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 PM Update:

Upper level ridge begins to builds in Thursday through Friday,
allowing a brief period of dry weather. Although some model guidance
delays the upper low departing ahead of the building ridge. This
could keep showers lingering well into Thursday morning. Dry period
looks to be rather short-lived as another disturbance approaches the
region just in time for the weekend. Timing differences are present
with this next system, which creates uncertainty for Friday`s
forecast. At this moment the first part of Friday appears dry with
precipitation moving sometime overnight through Saturday. Model
guidance begins to diverge for the remaining period. Otherwise
temperatures in the long term will range in the upper 60s to mid 70s
during the day with lows falling in the 50s overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level low pressure system has brought showers and mostly
cloudy conditions to the region today. This has resulted in
predominantly MVFR ceilings. Clouds will scatter out and
ceilings will lift as this system pushes eastward later this
afternoon and this evening. Brief high pressure and drier
conditions are expect this evening and tonight with VFR
conditions likely. There is some uncertainty overnight into
early Monday on fog development. Clouds are expected to increase
again early Monday morning, but if cloud cover overnight can
clear out long enough, then fog may become an issue early
Monday. Confidence is too low at this time to include IFR fog at
any terminal, but ELM and BGM would be most likely areas to see
restrictions from fog early Monday.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon through Wednesday...Occasional rain showers
may bring intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances
pass through the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions
possible in between disturbances, but timing of this is
uncertain.

Thursday...Becoming VFR as a ridge of high pressure moves
overhead.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MPK