036
FXUS64 KBMX 310611
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
111 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 737 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2024

Differential heating near a moisture axis kicked off a few
showers/storms late this afternoon. Not expecting much in the way
of measurable precipitation the remainder of the night. Actual
rain chances are probably around 10 percent in the west and
southwest associated with some lift from an upper low. Otherwise,
mid and upper level clouds will continue floating overhead
through Friday. Rain chances remain at 20 percent for a large part
of Central Alabama. Very little overall changes this evening.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2024

Tonight.

High amplitude ridging will migrate further east overnight, with
the narrow ridge axis extending roughly over much of the
Mississippi River Valley Region. Expansive surface high pressure
will remain to our north and will build eastward with time through
the night while the cold front to our southwest across the
ArkLaTex becomes stationary. Some drier air will move into our
northeast counties and the subsidence will help keep skies clear
while much of the clouds will become more confined to our
southwest counties. It is also in this area where some isolated
shower activity may persist through the night. Winds will become
more east to northeast with time with speeds from 3-6 mph. Low
temperatures will range from the mid to upper 50s northeast with
the coolest values in the more sheltered valley locations, to
readings in the mid 60s across the southwest half of the area.

Friday.

The longwave ridge axis will move east over the area on Friday
with surface high pressure contracting and moving toward the
Eastern Great Lakes Region as the stationary front returns
northeast as a warm front across the Southern Plains and into the
Lower Mississippi Valley Region. The result will be increasing
clouds from the southwest that will expand north and east through
the day accompanied by growing chances for some shower and
thunderstorm activity far west initially then expanding eastward
behind the ridging as it moves further east of the area. Winds
will become southeast with speeds from 4-8 mph. High temperatures
will range from the low 80s in the higher elevations far east to
near 90 southwest and far south.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2024

Changes this afternoon in the long term were mainly to adjust rain
chances for the weekend, with an increase in coverage Saturday
afternoon and night. There remains some timing and strength
differences for the shortwave moving through the region, so alot
of uncertainty remains will the POP forecast.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2024

Upper level shortwave will scoot across the Ohio Valley over the
weekend. While much of the lift associated with this feature will
stay to our north, it will still provide enough lift here to cause
increased POPs -- into the high chance/likely range. Looks like both
Saturday and Sunday afternoons will be the timeframes to watch, with
respect to both coverage of thunderstorms and the possibility of a
few stronger storms given the amount of instability. Beyond the
weekend, timing differences in the models on low amplitude features
will result in a return to more climo-based POPs. With the upper
level pattern across the southeast states being zonal to slightly
northwest, no extremes in temperatures are anticipated at this time.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

Mainly mid and upper level cloudiness through the period. Winds
become light and variable to calm through sunrise and east
southeast 5-10 kts through the afternoon. There could be a few
showers around TCL this afternoon and then again by 3 to 6z, but
chances are too low to mention at this time. Better rain chances
outside of this time frame for TCL.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated rain chances exist through this evening, with most of
the area remaining dry. Areas in the west will see increasing rain
coverage by sunrise on Saturday. Minimum RH values in the 38 to
48 percent range are expected this afternoon, with 20 ft
southeasterly winds at 6-8mph. Better rain chances arrive on
Saturday along with increased RH values and heavy rain, especially
in the south. 20 ft winds becoming southerly but remaining less
than 10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  64  82  63 /  10  10  40  60
Anniston    87  65  83  64 /  10  10  40  50
Birmingham  88  68  82  67 /  10  20  60  60
Tuscaloosa  88  68  81  67 /  20  40  80  60
Calera      87  67  81  67 /  10  20  60  60
Auburn      86  66  81  67 /  10  10  30  40
Montgomery  89  68  84  67 /  10  10  50  40
Troy        89  68  85  66 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...16