901
ACUS02 KWNS 091726
SWODY2
SPC AC 091724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A corridor of scattered damaging winds is possible Thursday
afternoon across a portion of the Southeast. Scattered severe
thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central Great Plains,
mainly from late afternoon through Thursday night.

...Central States...
Much uncertainty plagues this forecast cycle with low predictability
across guidance related to the development/evolution of multiple
MCVs from D1. These MCVs will meander downstream of a low-amplitude
shortwave trough progressing east from the northeast Great Basin
into the central Great Plains on D2. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt
shortwave trough should amplify from the Canadian Rockies into the
southern Prairie Provinces/northern High Plains by early Friday.

Have expanded level 1-MRGL risk eastward across the Upper MS Valley
for potential diurnal intensification of convection surrounding
remnant MCVs. While confidence is quite low in spatiotemporal
details and the degree of convective coverage, there is adequate
signal across guidance to warrant low-probability severe hail/wind
hazards.

Primary severe potential will likely commence towards peak heating
across the central High Plains ahead of the aforementioned
low-amplitude shortwave trough. Hot/deep-mixed thermodynamic
profiles are expected from southwest/south-central NE southward, as
the dryline reaches central KS. High-based convection in the
post-dryline airmass will offer a threat of sporadic severe gusts.
As convection impinges on a more buoyant airmass downstream, in
tandem with a strengthening low-level jet from the southern High
Plains towards eastern NE, an MCS should develop over NE in the
evening. A downstream warm-advection arc will aid in sustaining this
MCS eastward across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley. A swath of
severe wind gusts with embedded severe hail will be possible
Thursday night.

Farther north in the northern Great Plains, latest signals are for
broad, low-probability hail/wind threats. The timing of ascent and
strengthening mid/upper-level flow appears delayed until late in the
period ahead of the Canadian Rockies/northern High Plains trough.
Convective coverage should remain isolated during the late afternoon
to early evening along a weak surface front/trough. Modest
deep-layer shear during this timeframe will modulate the overall
threat as well. Greater convective potential should exist overnight
but may largely remain behind the undercutting surface front as it
sharpens southeastward.

...East...
Weak deep-layer shear will be prevalent across much of the region on
Thursday afternoon, south of modest mid-level westerlies across
NY/New England associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over
southeast Canada. Rich boundary-layer moisture will remain prevalent
from the DE Valley southward. This will support a primary threat of
wet microbursts producing erratic damaging winds. Have maintained a
level 2-SLGT risk in a portion of the Southeast for the most
probable corridor of widespread thunderstorms producing localized
damaging winds.

..Grams.. 07/09/2025

$$