845
FXUS64 KEPZ 100002
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
602 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

Most of the forecast period will be warm, dry, and breezy. Some
moisture moves in from the east Friday morning associated with a
weak cold front. Additional moisture and stronger east winds on
Saturday bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms along and
east of the Rio Grande before dry air returns by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

Quiet weather continues for the short term as a weak cold front
filters in Friday morning from the southern High Plains. Impacts
will be minimal through Friday with an uptick in surface moisture
east of the Rio Grande tomorrow AM. Dew points only reach the 30s
to low 40s which should not be enough to produce any precip on
Friday. A second more potent surge of easterly winds arrives Fri
night, pushing dew points into the 50s Sat AM across the lower
RGV. Winds look to be quite strong for a backdoor front/pseudo-
dryline, reaching 15-25 mph sustained with gusty west slope winds
Fri night. How far and deep the moisture reaches is a big question
with the NAM making it into AZ while the GFS and Euro get to the
Divide. As daytime heating kicks in, westerly flow flushes out
some of the moisture back east on Saturday. Otero and Hudspeth
counties are projected to have enough moisture and lift from a
nearby disturbance to spark a few showers and thunderstorms Sat
PM. El Paso will be in the middle of the battle between the dry
westerlies that develop in the afternoon out west and the cooler
air to the east. Rain chances have been bumped up a bit for the
metro area as low stratus hangs around for much of the day.

Another dryline dance to the west is expected for Sat night
before the moisture is flushed out for good on Sunday due to
breezier west winds (20-25 mph) underneath the base of a passing
upper trough. The dry air on the back end of the trough largely
ends our rain chances for the rest of the period. Weak upper-level
flow then takes over into the middle of next week, involving a
minor upper ridge. There will be kinks in the flow which could
induce a shower or storm over the mountains each afternoon but we
should be mainly dry. Winds stay relatively light through the
middle of next week. Temperatures remain near average through the
period with a slight warm up early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions through the period with SKC-FEW250. Surface winds
west 12-15G25 knots diminishing to west/northwest AOB 8 knots
after 03Z. After 08Z in the east...winds changing to
east/northeast 10-13G20 knots...as far west as the Continental
Divide by end of period. Increasing SCT-BKN250 after 12Z.
Additionally after 17Z...SCT-BKN080CU over the higher terrain of
Otero and Hudspeth Counties.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

With relatively lighter winds expected through the period, fire
weather concerns will be low to moderate. For Friday, modestly
breezy east winds are expected behind a cold front with an
increase in moisture east of the Rio Grande. This moisture
boundary will struggle to make it to the Continental Divide, so
western areas are expected to remain critically dry into the
weekend with moderately breezy SW winds. The pseudo-dryline
dances around into Sunday with a chance of showers and storms
Saturday afternoon for eastern areas. Dry thunderstorms may be a
threat as well Sat PM in the Sacs.

Very breezy west winds (20-ft winds of 15 to 20 mph) develop on
Sunday as an upper trough passes by, resulting in marginal red
flag conditions and possible SPS issuance. RFTIs of 2-4 elevated
to near critical are forecast for Sunday. Dry conditions are
forecast for the first half of next week as temperatures warm up
with moderate afternoon breezes and elevated fire weather.

Min RHs range from 5-12% west of the Highway 54 corridor through
Saturday, 10-35% east of 54; then 5-15% area-wide. Vent rates will
be mostly excellent; good to very good in portions of FWZ 113 and
056 through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  60  89  63  89 /   0   0  20  20
Sierra Blanca            56  80  58  84 /   0  10  40  50
Las Cruces               53  88  56  87 /   0   0  20  20
Alamogordo               50  83  56  84 /   0   0  20  40
Cloudcroft               38  60  41  60 /   0  10  40  70
Truth or Consequences    51  83  53  83 /   0   0  10  20
Silver City              45  76  48  76 /   0   0  10  10
Deming                   47  86  51  86 /   0   0  10  10
Lordsburg                46  85  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       58  86  61  87 /   0   0  20  20
Dell City                49  81  56  82 /   0   0  30  50
Fort Hancock             54  89  59  92 /   0   0  30  40
Loma Linda               53  78  56  81 /   0  10  20  30
Fabens                   55  89  60  90 /   0   0  20  30
Santa Teresa             51  85  56  86 /   0   0  20  20
White Sands HQ           58  85  62  85 /   0   0  20  30
Jornada Range            48  83  54  85 /   0   0  20  20
Hatch                    46  86  51  86 /   0   0  20  20
Columbus                 52  86  55  88 /   0   0  10  10
Orogrande                52  83  59  84 /   0  10  30  30
Mayhill                  41  67  45  69 /   0  10  30  60
Mescalero                41  70  45  70 /   0  10  30  70
Timberon                 41  69  44  70 /   0  10  30  50
Winston                  41  75  46  77 /   0   0  10  20
Hillsboro                47  81  49  81 /   0   0  10  10
Spaceport                45  83  50  83 /   0   0  20  20
Lake Roberts             40  77  44  77 /   0   0  10  10
Hurley                   41  80  45  80 /   0   0   0  10
Cliff                    45  83  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               45  78  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  45  79  49  79 /   0   0  10  10
Animas                   47  86  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  48  86  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           48  86  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               48  80  49  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner