Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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896
FXUS65 KGJT 211745
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1145 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 438 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Updated to remove canceled winter weather products. Snowfall is
decreasing in areal coverage and intensity and not significant
additional accumulations are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

A strong closed low over southeast Colorado will continue moving
east today. Plenty of moisture and clouds will continue wrapping
around the west side of the trough and over western CO. As the
storm center moves east, the areal coverage and intensity of
snow and rainfall in the mountains will steadily decrease. Only
isolated orographic showers are expected after 21z.

Clearing will continue tonight and a transitory ridge will spread
over the area Sunday bringing warmer and drier conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Models consistent in depicting instability showers over the
mountains lingering into Sunday evening, but diminishing by
midnight. Instability showers again develop over the mountains
Monday afternoon/evening, though a trough moving across the
northern Intermountain West appears to enhance coverage to some
degree. More of the same Tuesday as the trough slowly drags
southeastward over the northern half of the forecast area. EC and
GFS still indicate a break in the action on Wednesday followed by
a trough moving down from the north brushing the area Thursday
bringing a chance for showers. ECMWF is farther east with this
feature so no impacts indicated while GFS brushes the Continental
Divide bringing a chance of showers to the eastern edge of the
forecast area. By Friday, models back in sync with a building
ridge over the west the return to dry weather. Temperatures over
the coming week are expected to hover from 5 to 10 degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Heavier cloud cover and low CIGs will continue to lift this
afternoon as the low pressure system moves well to our east. By
00Z widespread VFR conditions will return to the area as high
pressure gradually builds in from the west. Isolated snow showers
are possible over the San Juans after 15Z Wednesday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...MMS



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