Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 170525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1125 PM MDT Wed May 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed May 16 2018

Dry conditions will continue through the short term as a storm
system moves east into the Great Basin by late Thursday. Southwest
flow will increase on Thursday with gusty winds developing by late
morning and continuing into the evening hours. As a result, a Red
Flag Warning is in effect due to critical fire weather conditions
on Thursday due to gusty winds, dry fuels and low RH values. See
the Fire Weather section below for more details. Winds will slowly
diminish by Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed May 16 2018

The Pacific storm system will settle over northern Utah by Friday
afternoon. Winds are not expected to be as strong on Friday as the
pressure gradient decreases over the area. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the north and over the higher
terrain on Friday and Friday night. The storm system is expected
to move east over the Front Range by Saturday but wrap-around
residual moisture and instability will allow for a better threat
of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. These storms
will be diurnally-driven with the best focus during the afternoon
and evening hours and more favored across the north and over the
higher terrain. Snow levels will be around 10kft on Saturday night
with some light accumulations possible on the higher mountain
passes. Monday should be a transition day with a slight chance of
showers across the north, otherwise dry conditions are expected.
Both the EC and GFS are advertising a stronger closed low pressure
system moving onshore and into Nevada by early Tuesday. However, both
models show this system moving northeast through mid-week with
another round of gusty winds but little precipitation for the
forecast area. Temperatures should run near normal through the
weekend before above-normal temperatures return on Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Wed May 16 2018

VFR conditions with light drainage winds will dominate the
forecast through the mid-morning hours on Thursday. Afternoon
gusts over 25 mph will be possible over most of the TAF sites.


Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed May 16 2018

Critical fire weather conditions will occur on Thursday as
a Pacific storm system moves into the Great Basin, bringing
stronger southwest winds and dry conditions across much of the
area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for late Thursday morning
through Thursday evening for much of western Colorado in areas
where fuels are deemed critical.

Winds will lessen by Friday but remain breezy at times with some
moisture increasing across the north through the weekend,
lessening fire weather concerns there. However, much of the area
will still be dry through Friday.


CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ200-202-



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