931
FXUS63 KLMK 270048
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
848 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...Forecast Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Heat Advisory extended through Friday.

* Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorms
  chances remain.

* Cold front brings additional rain chances and lower humidity by
  Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Things have quieted down across the region at this hour, although
will note that there are still several remnant outflow boundaries
floating around out there, and plenty of instability should anything
overcome the near surface stability beginning to set up with the
loss of daytime heating. So, expecting a mostly quiet night, but
can`t rule out a few showers and storms at times given some
lingering triggers and available instability. Did want to mention
that the latest runs of the HRRR suggest a cluster of storms could
develop over TN and work NW into our are overnight, but confidence
is low in that scenario for now. Will continue to monitor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 416 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

In most areas across southern Indiana and central Kentucky
temperatures are on either side of 90, but a few areas have fallen
into the 70s and low 80s from rain showers currently working over
the area. This has produced a series of outflow boundaries that are
continue to cut across the area, kicking up new showers and
thunderstorms. The convection has had limited vertical growth (due
to mid-level subsidence) and tends to be relatively short lived,
producing winds up to around 30-35 mph. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to be possible through the rest of the
afternoon and evening hours. Severe weather isn`t expected.

Tonight, upper high pressure will continue expanding from the
Southeast west towards the Four Corners region, pushing the upper
trough, over the western CONUS, northward until upper flow is zonal
through the Great Lakes region. At the surface high pressure over
the Southeast will keep funneling moistures north up the Mississippi
and Ohio River Valley. Precipitable water values over the CWA will
continue to recover and increase to 1.6 to 2 inches by Friday
morning. Under mostly clear skies, lows will fall into the low to
mid 70s.

Tomorrow, south to southwest winds will continue to usher in moist
air. Dew points are expected to climb into the low to mid 70s in
most places. A few places could reach into the upper 70s, and with
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, heat indices will climb back
into the mid 90s to near 100. These values are trending lower than
today`s heat indices. The Heat Advisory was extended again through
Friday for what will probably be the last time. A lot of moisture
remains in the area, so afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
will once again be possible. Don`t believe coverage will be as
widespread as today.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 416 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Saturday, surface high pressure over the Southeast will continue to
sent moisture up the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys ahead of a cold
front riding east along the zonal flow, north of the CWA. This is
expected to produce isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
throughout the Lower Ohio Valley.

Saturday to Monday, expect slightly cooler temperatures and ongoing
isolated to scattered showers and storms. Temperatures are expected
to fall into the upper 80s to low 90s by Saturday and Sunday.

Monday night into Tuesday, an upper ridge is expected to amplify
over the Rockies as a trough deepens over the East Coast. Northwest
flow over the Lower Ohio Valley will push a cold front through the
CWA, bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms. Given as the
precipitation should move through during the overnight and morning
hours, severe weather chances remain low. Highs fall into the mid
80s to near 90 before falling dew points arrive on Wednesday,
falling into the mid 60s. Highs remain in the mid 80s to low 90s
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Showers and storms are diminishing across the region with the loss
of daytime heating, and most of the triggering outflow boundaries
now out of our region. As a result, will call for a quiet overnight
with calm to nearly calm winds and mostly clear skies. Do have some
concerns that we may see fog development, especially where heavy
rainfall occurred, however confidence is not high enough at the
moment for mention given the lack of support in the model data.

A light to steady SW wind picks up by mid morning tomorrow with VFR
conditions prevailing for much of the day. The exception will be any
isolated to scattered t-storm later in the afternoon and early
evening where vis could be reduced below 3 SM briefly. Included
Prob30 for now to cover that threat.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for KYZ023>043-
     045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for INZ076>079-
     083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...BJS