557
FXUS62 KMHX 121630
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1230 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across eastern NC today behind a departing
cold front, remaining in control into Monday despite a weak
backdoor front crossing the region tonight. Then, a low
pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area
Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds in on Thursday
before another low pressure system impacts us late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
As of 925 AM Sun... Clear skies, light winds, and steadily
warming temps have made for a rather pleasant day so far this
Sunday. Overall not too much change from the previous thinking,
though have lowered dewpoints and thus RH`s slightly given the
latest morning sounding which shows the potential for mixing
heights to reach 6000-7000 ft this afternoon. This will allow
the entire area to be well mixed. Not only will this promote
gusty westerly winds around 20-25 mph this will also mix out the
dewpoints rather efficiently as well and have now lowered
dewpoints this afternoon by another degree or two into the upper
30s to low 40s inland which puts dewpoints in the 20-30% range
for the Coastal Plain. While both gusty winds and low RH`s would
generally put the area in some elevated fire conditions, given
the recent rains and saturated soils fire conditions will remain
marginal.

Prev Disc...Latest analysis this morning depicts
barotropic upper level trough situated over southeastern Canada
as a shortwave trough shifts further into the mid-Atlantic, with
predominantly westerly flow across the Carolinas. To the west,
ridging is amplifying over the southern plains as another upper
level low digs into the Four Corners region. At the surface,
cold front associated with the Great Lakes low is now into the
Piedmont while the pre-frontal trough, responsible for the
cloudiness overnight, is now departing offshore.

Cold front will quickly push across the area later this morning
as shortwave traverses the mid-Atlantic, allowing high pressure
to build in its wake. Breezy downslope WSW flow, combined with
increasing low-level heights in the wake of the upper trough,
favor temperatures rebounding into the mid to upper 70s on a
mainly sunny and dry Sunday. Across the northern Outer Banks,
temperatures will not be able to climb quite as high as a weak
backdoor cold front, associated with a very weak wave of low
pressure dropping southeast out of the Delmarva Peninsula,
pushes across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Sun...Deep ridging will continue to expand over
much of the southeastern CONUS tonight into Monday morning as
mid- Atlantic trough pushes further offshore and Four Corners
low digs further into the southern Plains states. High pressure
will settle overhead as the backdoor front traverses the area
and eventually washes out, promoting calm winds and clear skies.
This pattern strongly favors a low temperature forecast below
guidance given excellent radiational cooling, and would not be
surprised to see a multitude of readings in the upper 40s across
the coastal plain early Mon morning. Patchy radiation fog is
possible to start the morning work commute, but widespread
visibility issues are not anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...Dry and seasonably cool weather will
continue Monday as high pressure builds across the area.
Unsettled weather will impact ENC on Tue/Wed as a deepening low
pressure tracks across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. High
pressure builds in Thursday night into Friday but another low
pressure system will impact the area late in the week.

Monday and Monday night...High pressure will become centered
off the Mid-Atlantic will migrate offshore on Monday while
ridging builds aloft. Dry conditions will continue but clouds
will be increasing through the day as the next system approaches
from the west. Temps will be seasonable with highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s. Dew points will be much below normal however in
the low to mid 50s making for very comfortable conditions.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...Vertically stacked low
pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and
then push across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before pushing
off the coast Wednesday night. Precip chances increase through
the day Tuesday and peak Tuesday night as upper level diffluence
and southern stream moisture increases across the area with
PWATs peaking around 1.75". Additional showers will push across
the area Wednesday as the upper level trough and attendant sfc
cold front pushes across the area. Could see a few elevated
thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night but clouds and precip
will limit instability and any severe potential appears minimal.
However, Wednesday will have a better chance for stronger
storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and
greater instability coupled with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear.
Most of the area will likely see a soaking rain with precip
amounts around 1-1.5" through the period with coastal sections
potentially approaching 2". Temps will continue to be
seasonable with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 Tuesday and
low to mid 80s on Wednesday.

Thursday through Friday...Disparity continues among the models
with how the mid week system transitions as it moves offshore
late Wednesday with some solutions opening the upper low into a
wave with the system progressively moving east into the western
Atlantic allowing for upper ridging to build aloft bringing a
dry forecast. However, the 00z operational ECMWF and to some
extent the CMC now maintain a closed low with a slower track
across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday keeping cyclonic flow over
the area which will bring greater cloud cover with a few showers
persisting across the area. Have now introduced slight chance
PoPs and the CMC is trending toward the ECMWF. Models are in
better agreement with another southern stream system quickly
moving into the area late in the week but once again guidance
differs with how the system evolves as it pushes across the
Southeast and off the coast. But despite the differences, most
guidance brings another round of descent rainfall amounts across
much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Monday/...
As of 1230 PM Sun...Pred VFR conditions continue to persist
across ENC this afternoon and are forecast to continue on into
Monday. Diurnal Cu has begun to develop across the region this
afternoon with cloud bases generally around 6-9 kft resulting
in little impact to operations. Continued SCT deck expected for
the rest of the afternoon before clouds dissipate tonight.
Otherwise the main concern for the rest of today will be breezy
WNW`rly winds with gusts up to 25 kt possible across the coastal
plain. Across the northern Outer Banks, a secondary front will
cross the area late this afternoon as a weak area of low
pressure passes offshore bringing further veering of winds to
the north and eventually northeasterly into the overnight hours.

After sunset, winds will rapidly decouple under clear skies as
high pressure moves overhead. Some patchy radiational fog is
possible at the most vulnerable sites though latest HREF probs
for fog and 12z guidance hints that the threat is low (20% or
less) and even if MIFG does develop minimal impacts to
operations are expected. By Mon winds become southerly but
remain light while cloud cover slowly increases from SW to NE
late Mon morning.

LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...Pred VFR conditions expected through Monday
as high pressure builds across the region. A low pressure
system will impact the area Tuesday through Wednesday with
deteriorating conditions expected Tuesday with periods of sub-
VFR continuing into Wednesday. Sub-VFR conditions possible
Wednesday night with plenty of low level moisture in place. Pred
VFR returns Thursday but could see isolated showers bringing
brief sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 315 AM Sun...Improving marine conditions expected through
the short term, although multiple frontal passages will bring
quick wind regime changes over the waters through tomorrow
morning.

Regional observations show south to southwesterly winds of 5-10
kt with seas 3-5 feet (except 2-3 feet across Onslow Bay) as a
pre-frontal trough and cold front approach the waters from the
west. The primary cold front is expected to cross the waters by
sunrise, accompanied by a west-northwesterly surge of around 15
kt with a few gusts exceeding 20 kt this morning. By this
afternoon, a weak wave of low pressure moving off the Delmarva
Peninsula will drag a subtle backdoor cold front across the
waters, veering winds northerly and then easterly through
tonight. Winds are expected to weaken behind this boundary to
around 10 kt or less.

Currently observed seas will change little into the afternoon as
winds pick back up out of the west, but once the backdoor front
pushes through lighter winds will allow seas to subside, falling
to around 2-3 feet areawide by Mon morning. No SCA headlines are
needed this morning although a few spotty gusts to 25 kt are
possible (10-20% chance) across portions of the sounds this
morning.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 415 AM Sunday...High pressure builds moves offshore
Monday while a low pressure system will impact the waters
Tuesday into Wednesday. Low pressure may linger near the coast
into Thursday.

Easterly winds around 15 kt or less continues into Monday with
seas around 2-4 ft. Winds veer to southerly Monday night and
increase Tuesday ahead of the low pressure system and expect a
period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop and
continue into Wednesday. We may see a brief period of Gale Force
winds across portions of the waters Tuesday evening. Seas will
build Tuesday and peak around 7-10 ft Tuesday night, then will
gradually subside Wednesday and Wednesday night. A cold front
will push across the waters with winds becoming NW to N around
10-15 kt and seas around 3 to 5 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/RCF
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/MS