237
FXUS65 KMSO 141829
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1229 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

.DISCUSSION...This afternoon, expect showers and isolated
thunderstorms to persist due to instability. Radar projections
indicate these will mainly cluster along and east of Highway 93,
from Kalispell to Stevensville and east along the Divide,
including Butte. Wednesday will trend warmer and drier with
afternoon breezes.

Model guidance suggests a trough moving south from Canada into
the region on Thursday and Friday, primarily bringing gusty winds.
There`s a high probability (70-90%) of widespread wind gusts
reaching 30 mph, with some areas, especially mid-slopes and higher
elevations, seeing gusts of 40 mph. Lakes, notably Flathead Lake,
can anticipate choppy conditions in the afternoon and evening.
However, there`s uncertainty about the depth of this trough,
leading to uncertain precipitation forecasts on Friday for most of
the region, although northwest Montana is expected to have
showery conditions.

Recent weather models, both traditional and machine learning,
have struggled to predict smaller-scale details in the Northeast
Pacific, affecting forecasts for the Northern Rockies. While a
composite of model solutions suggests a progressive system with
cooler temperatures and shower chances, there`s variability in
predictions. Towards the weekend, about 20% of models suggest a
colder, wetter trough over central Idaho and western Montana. By
the middle of next week, approximately 55% of models predict a wet
trough over the region, potentially leading to mountain snow
accumulations.


&&

.AVIATION...This afternoon`s satellite loops show cumulus clouds
forming, indicating a destabilizing atmosphere. Radar projections
concentrate most shower activity between KGPI-KMSO-KBTM through
the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest marginal lift,
supporting isolated thunderstorms, particularly near KBTM. Shower
chances will persist into the evening before skies clear
overnight.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$