956
FXUS65 KPIH 111949
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
149 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry through the weekend.

- Weak systems Monday and Tuesday bring breezy winds and isolated
thunderstorms mainly along the Divide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 148 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Quiet dry pattern continues into the weekend. Upper ridge
begins to rebound Saturday, allowing temperatures to nudge
upwards slightly. Overall winds remain generally light, but
briefly breezy Saturday afternoon across the Eastern Magic
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 148 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Similar conditions continue into Sunday as upper ridge continues to
strengthen. Models indicate presence of a VERY weak shortwave Sunday
afternoon, which could allow for some afternoon build ups mainly
over the central mountains. NAM develops weak precipitation for an
isolated thunderstorm near Sun Valley, much where current build-ups
are occurring. HiRes-FV3 also similar. More robust shortwave shifts
east through Montana Monday into Tuesday. East Idaho on the dry side
of this feature Monday, though winds are expected to become more
gusty during the afternoon. This may have some implications for fire
concerns. Breezy winds continue into Tuesday as the shortwave
feature sags south toward East Idaho, allowing for isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development mainly higher elevations
by Tuesday. A few thunderstorms may linger into Wednesday along with
slightly cooler temperatures. It is notable that there are some
differences in the models with respect to the track and speed of
this system, so there is an expectation of forecast fluctuations
especially for Wednesday. For Thursday and beyond, ridge of high
pressure returns, but there are some differences with respect to
positioning of the upstream trough along or off the coast headed
into the weekend. NBM maintains isolated showers/thunderstorms
mainly along the Divide. Temperatures do rebound back into the 90s
for most lower elevations for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

High pressure is slowly building into the northern Rockies, but
there is now some mid-level moisture expected, with some FEW-SCT
decks in the 6000ft AGL to 10000ft AGL range. The clouds will
mostly affect the four nothernmost TAFs and will clear from west
to east starting in the early morning hours Sat. Wind will be
driven by the slope- valley effect, but stay light at 12KT or
less, with some airdromes having overnight wind that is light
and variable. Do not expect the HZ to be a problem tomorrow
morning, as it was for KIDA this previous morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

As high pressure intensifies for the weekend, expect a gradual
warming and drying. Afternoon humidity on Fri afternoon was actually
somewhat high for the time of year, but should by Sun dry out to
below 15 percent at most locations below 5500ft elevation in the
valleys and highlands and 4500ft elevation in the central mountains.

As long as the upper level ridge dominates, the wind is expected to
be light--even the transport wind. The air mass will become more
unstable from day to day over this weekend, but not to the point of
thunderstorm activity.

This starts to change Mon as a trough approaches from the north. On
Mon, thunderstorms may occur in the ID-MT border region, then by Tue
this low will be closer, creating more instability and a greater
coverage of thunderstorms with likely only the Twin Falls District
and the southern Sawtooth NF escaping the threat.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...Messick