Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KABR 240848

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
348 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Snow extends east of the James valley at 3am, with Dual Pol
supporting snow as the main P-type, though profiles do lose ice
in the dendritic growth zone as the morning progresses from west
to east, but with loss of forcing any additional freezing drizzle
will be very light. That said, ice under snow is making for poor
travel conditions so have updated headlines.

Profiles remain saturated through the day so little clearing is
anticipated and as such it will be difficult to warm much across
the CWA. Thankfully temperatures are hovering around freezing so
despite stratus, late March sunshine should be good enough to get
us into the mid 30s. A little less certain on the degree of cloud
cover from the Missouri valley west, and they may warm a bit more.

Unfortunately we are not done with the wintry weather this weekend.
A shortwave embedded in southwest flow looks to zip across the
area Sunday. Some of the same problems exists with this system as
the last, with profiles close to the 0C mark after wet bulbing to
saturation, though not nearly as deeply isothermal compared to
Friday. With limited warming today, temperatures will fall back
down to around the freezing mark tonight, so ice may or may not be
an issue when precipitation moves in. We again lose saturation
within the dendritic growth zone for most of this system so again
will be dealing with drizzle. Thankfully CAMS show much less
coverage of shower activity with this system so QPF/ice
accumulations will be limited to around 1/10th of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Main challenge for the period will be pcpn and type for Sunday night
through Monday. Models continue to advertise the development of a
positive tilt western CONUS trof during the period. A pretty good
chunk of energy per pv anomaly charts/vorticity progs look to eject
northeast across the region Sunday night and Monday.
Moisture/saturation certainly looks sufficient via perusal of
sounding data. Sounding data and critical thickness progs once again
suggest a mix of pcpn types, especially along southern border of cwa
where there is a bit more warm air aloft Sunday night into Monday.
Making matters worse is that sfc temps hover right around or just
below freezing during the overnight hours. So, the forecast does
contain some mention of freezing rain Sunday night into Monday
morning. The rest of the time period should place the region under
northwest flow aloft and generally dry conditions with only a couple
weak systems expected to cross the area. Temperatures will probably
average out near to a bit below normal for most of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

MVFR/IFR vsby will continue to impact the eastern tafs until snow
exits Saturday morning. Behind the snow, IFR/MVFR cigs will
linger through the remainder of the period.


SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for SDZ007-

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ039-



SHORT TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...TDK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.