Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 181301

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
501 AM AKDT Sun Mar 18 2018


Models...Solution have done well in the short term, but continue
to have problems as then move through the midrange and into the
extended periods. The one thing they are handling well is the
building of the high amplitude ridge to the west. They continue to
slide that ridge just a little further east with each new set of
solutions. There continues to be differences in the timing of the
shortwaves as they move across the area. Will continue to use a
blend of solutions for precipitation probability with a lean to
the GFS and ECMWF today.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over the state has moved northeast
to lie from Mayo YT to Fort Yukon to Point Lay and west over
Wrangel Island this morning with the ridging flattening out
allowing for a fast southwest flow over the southern half of the
state. The low that was near Kamchatka yesterday has moved
northeast over southern Siberia at 500 dam. A shortwave moved over
the southwest coast yesterday and has continued to spin north and
east to lie from the low over the southern Seward Peninsula Coast
to Unalakleet to Palmer, then south this morning. By this evening
it will lie over the Chukchi Sea and Point Hope to Anaktuvuk Pass
to Dawson YT as it continue to weaken. The ridging will move over
the Arctic Coast and into Canada this evening, then gets pushed
east as the shortwave rotates over the Arctic and troughing
develops over the Arctic Plains. The next shortwave to impact the
area will move across the Bering Sea to the West Coast this
evening. The low over southern Siberia will remain stationary
while a 505 dam low develops over the Chukotsk Peninsula and moves
north into the Chukchi Sea, the shortwave will continue to swing
around the low to lie from Shishmaref to King Salmon tonight, and
from Point Hope to Tanana to Homer Monday morning, and from Point
Lay to Minto to Valdez Monday afternoon. The shortwave will
continue east through Monday evening and will start digging south
with a low developing near Yakutat by Tuesday morning. High
amplitude ridge starts building north Monday as it rotates around
a 580 dam high in the Pacific and the axis will lie from Unimak
Island to Savoonga, and north by Tuesday evening. The low over
Siberia will be pushed northeast over Wainwright by Tuesday
morning, then move east and merge with the digging trough near the
AlCan Border. At 850 hpa...-10C isotherm lies from Old Crow YT
along the south slopes of the Brooks Range to Shishmaref, then
south over the lower Yukon Delta. By Monday morning it will lie
from Old Crow YT to Tanana to Iliamna, and by Monday night it will
basically be south of the forecast area. The -20 isotherm will
remain offshore over the Arctic.

Surface...A trough of low pressure extends from a 978 mb low near
Kamchatka to a 995 mb low in the Gulf of Anadyr to a 999 mb low
in the Bering Strait with the front extending southeast to King
Salmon. Leeside troughing persists north of the Alaska Range with
a bubble high over Southcentral and the Copper River Basin. A
ridge of high pressure also lies over the Eastern Arctic Coast
with the axis extending from a 1028 mb high over the Northwest
Territories to just north of Point Barrow, then northwest to a
1039 mb high over the high Siberian Arctic. The Arctic ridge will
move east today and troughing will build east over the interior as
the low near Kamchatka moves to the Dateline this evening, and
the low that was in the Bering Strait moves north to 50 nm
northwest of Cape Lisburne. Leeside troughing pushes to the east,
north of the Brooks Range, this evening and slowly drifts over
the coast Monday night. A second weather front moves to the West
Coast tonight with a 1010 mb low developing in Bristol Bay and
moving Northeast into the Interior tonight at 1006 mb.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Wind Chill this morning will be
ending as winds diminish and temperatures rise. Front moving to
the west coast will be spreading clouds north over the area. Winds
northeast to east will increase to 15 to 25 mph this afternoon,
then diminish to 10 to 20 mph tonight. Expect some blowing snow to
develop for a few hours this afternoon and evening, but
visibility expected to remain above 1/2 mile. Temperatures steady.

West Coast and Western Interior...Active weather pattern
continues. Front has moved through Nome, and winds snapped around
to southwest at 15 mph. By this afternoon most of the coastal
areas will have south to southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph and the
first front will move into the interior. Snow ending for most of
the area by noon today. Another front will move to the coast
tonight and winds will swing around to southwest to west at 10 to
20 mph. Temperatures cooling.

Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy with some periods of light
snow today. Accumulations up to 3 inches with heaviest amounts
from Tanana north and west. The next front will spread snow east
across the area tonight. The heaviest snowfall for the Fairbanks
area will be from around 3 am to noon Monday. The front will pack
some winds with it as well, and west winds around Fairbanks will
be gusting to around 20 mph Monday afternoon and evening. Winds
increasing on the summits Monday and Tuesday may cause some travel
problems, with blowing and drifting snow, on all the interior
highways. Temperatures cooling.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Solutions continue to build
the high amplitude ridge midweek. Expecting a quiet weather period
in the Western Interior, and Western Arctic Coast, and most of
the West Coast, with a more active weather pattern on the Eastern
Arctic Coast, the Central and Eastern Interior as fronts dive
south out of the Arctic across the area, and with the ridge axis
continuing to slip east expect some precipitation to make it to
the Western Capes and St Lawrence Island.



Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ220-

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.



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