Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 252037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
237 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...Warming trend essentially
unchanged through Friday.  Convective potential will increase from
the southwest Friday afternoon.  Models show significant instability
at that time but not a lot of moisture.  Initial thunderstorms
should feature gusty winds but little rain, until after 00Z when
PoPs increaae.  The area favorable for thunderstorms is
geographically larger than the area where rain is expected, so some
of the thunderstorms will be dry.  High temps will be near 80
degrees in eastern Oregon Thursday, cooling a few degrees Friday. In
Idaho Friday will be the warmer day with highs in the mid 80s in the
lower southern valleys and 70s to lower 80s elsewhere.  Southeast
winds will increase Friday as a surface trough intensifies in
eastern Oregon.

.LONG TERM...Friday evening through Monday afternoon. Upper level
low will continue to slowly move across Oregon toward our area
Friday night through Saturday.  Models are in much better agreement
of the track of this low, and show it moving overhead late Saturday
into Sunday. During this time, periods of showers and thunderstorms
are expected, especially on Friday evening.  Temperatures decrease
on Saturday and even more on Sunday, so the threat of thunderstorms
will decrease during that time, too.  By Monday, showers continue as
the low splits some energy to the east and the south.

Monday evening through Thursday...Cooler and wetter conditions will
prevail as remnant moisture of the large upper low moves across the
area. Rain is expected across most areas with snow limited to the
very high mountainous expanses. This broad swath of precipitation
will gradually shrink northeastward, eventually dissipating by
Thursday morning as ridging builds in. Anticipate breezy northwest
surface winds throughout most of the period, becoming easterly by
Thursday morning. Temperatures will hover near normal.


.AVIATION...VFR with clear skies. Surface winds, variable 10-15 kts.
Winds aloft near 10 KFT MSL: NW 10-20 kts.





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