Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 260818
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
318 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

A fairly quiet short term period is in store, with the only feature
of interest a weak cool front crossing Iowa from northwest to
southeast late this morning into this evening. Ahead of the front
light west southwest breezes and mostly sunny skies will push
temperatures up toward 70 once again, but in our northwestern
sections temperatures will be held in check by earlier passage of
the boundary, with highs more in the low to mid 60s. Cold air
advection behind the front will be minimal, with lows tonight again
in the mid 30s to around 40. There is a chance for sprinkles or
brief light showers as the front moves through this afternoon,
especially in our north and northeast, but forcing and available
moisture are modest at best and only have very low POPs with no
impacts forecast.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

A potent short wave will drop southeast into the central Great
Lakes region on Friday and will drag a cold front through the
area. Deep mixing and gusty northwest winds can be expected
during the day along with ample sunshine and a relatively dry
atmosphere, will lead to high temperatures into the low 60s to low
70s. The strongest push of cold advection will arrive Friday
night with 850 mb temperatures of 0C to -5C reaching the state.
Early morning temperatures on Saturday over northern Iowa will be
near freezing. Temperatures will recover some Saturday morning
with the very dry air in place with PWATs around one quarter inch.
Therefore, despite the cold temperatures aloft, good mixing will
occur and push temperatures into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

The upper ridge will arrive on Sunday and will bring warm
advection to the state. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms
could be possible late Sunday into Sunday night over far western
Iowa as the low level jet focuses into the region. A mild and
relatively active period will persist through mid next week.
Southwest flow aloft will remain pronounced through this period
with several short waves lifting through the flow. Generally mild
temperatures in the 70s and periodic chances for thunderstorms can
be expected. A few chances for severe weather cannot be
discounted. Monday still appears to be the warmest day and there
is the potential for a few locations to reach 80. Have kept
temperatures below 80 at this time due to the potential for cloud
cover and lingering convection during the day that could limit
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night/
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

No substantial changes from 00z. VFR conditions will prevail at
the terminals through the TAF period. A few high ceilings are
likely as moisture increases. Northwesterly winds will slightly
increase into the morning as a boundary sweeps across the region.

Ceilings and Visibility Confidence... High
Wind Confidence... Medium-High

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Donavon
AVIATION...Krull/Ansorge



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