Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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709 FXUS63 KGID 110919 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 419 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light westerly winds, partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and temperatures near 80 degrees will make for a spectacular Saturday across the region. - Clouds, and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area overnight tonight as an upper level low approaches the area from the intermountain west. - Overall, seasonably mild temperatures with off and on again chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast through the end up the upcoming week. At this point, the odds for severe thunderstorms any particular day appears low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Clear skies and light westerly winds have persisted across the local area overnight. This has allowed for good viewing of the northern lights across the area along with seasonably cool low temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to near 50 early this morning. For today, expect surface winds to remain westerly ahead of an upper level low expected to track mainly south of the local area Sunday into Monday. These westerly winds will allow temperatures to warm to near 80 by early afternoon, and looking at model soundings, could once again see some fair weather CU develop this afternoon, although with very low depoints - even sprinkles appear unlikely. As a result, have some partly cloudy skies for this afternoon but kept the forecast completely dry. While the brunt of this next system is expected to pass south of the local area Sunday evening into Monday, expect the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to return to both south central Nebraska and north central Kansas as early as tonight, and continuing off and on through Monday afternoon. While there is some very modest instability to work with, shear in the atmosphere is minimal, and severe weather over this period appears unlikely. The increased cloud cover and shower activity, however, should hold afternoon temperatures down closer to Climatology for this time of year, which is right around 70 degrees. Behind this system, the daytime hours Tuesday should be dry and mostly sunny across the region, allowing afternoon temperatures to climb back closer to 80 across the local area. This will be ahead of a weak cold front, however, which should bring slightly cooler temperatures back to the area on Wednesday along with the return for at least the potential for additional showers and non-severe thunderstorms. Thereafter...the upper level pattern will become zonal through the end of the week, with additional, smaller chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area each day along with seasonably mild temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 High confidence VFR conditions expected through the period with clear skies through much of the afternoon hours Saturday accompanied by light winds overnight, becoming westerly near 10 KTS during the daytime hours Saturday. Clouds should thicken a bit toward the tail end of the TAF period as an upper level low approaches the region, but any -SHRA or -TSRA activity should wait until beyond the current scope of the TAF period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Rossi