Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 270021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
621 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018

Main forecast concern will be chance of severe thunderstorms Monday
into Tuesday night. Satellite showing an amplified pattern from the
Pacific into North America. The flow over North America also has a
split with over the eastern and western portions of the country.
Satellite is showing a nice tropical moisture connection into the
central portion of the country.

Models started out fine at jet level. At mid levels the models
started out fine with the Nam slightly worse than the others. Models
started out a little cool with the Ecmwf doing slightly better.

Tonight...This looks to be the most benign period. With winds
staying up and increasing moisture, low temperatures will mild even
though for this time of year.

Sunday/Sunday night...Beginning of a very active period for the
area. Slow moving upper low is over the Great Basin. A secondary low
center is over central Colorado with a negatively tilted shortwave
moving across the area during the afternoon and night. Through the
day, Some indication that a right rear quadrant will affect the
western portion of the area, above the instability axis, from mid
afternoon into the evening.

Instability axis looks to set up along the Kansas and Colorado
border. The instability and lift parameters come together as the cap
disappears during peak heating. Thunderstorms will form along and
west of the Colorado and move across the area the night.
Instability, shear, and composite parameters point toward these
storms being able to become severe. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the most likely threats. However, a tornado or two cannot be
ruled out. Also precipitable water values of 1 to 1.75 inches along
steering flow winds from south to north to make training more likely
will create a flash flood threat as well.

High temperatures look cooler due to more cloud cover and a strong
upslope component.

Monday/Monday night...Some linger precipitation appears to over the
area in the morning. Depending on how strong and widespread it is it
could affect the convective intensity and area later in the day.
Some disagreement in how the models handle the jet agreement but
model consensus would support a right rear quadrant moving across
the area from mid afternoon into the evening hours. The Gfs gets
messed by convective feedback and a lot of its parameters are not

One thing that needs to be considered is how long the morning cloud
cover hangs around. If it lasts longer than anticipated then
convective initiation and intensity will be affected. In general the
mid level lift will be stronger as the upper trough is that much
closer. A stronger shortwave trough rotates through the area during
this time with instability as high or higher than the previous day.
Also a cold front start moving into the area late in the afternoon
into the nighttime period. The threat of severe weather looks better
than on Sunday due to the above reasoning. Once again large hail and
damaging winds will be big threats. The tornado threat will be
greater this day due to better overall shear. Locally heavy rainfall
will once again be an issue due to PWs of 1 to 1.5 inches and cell

Tuesday...This period a little more uncertain due to the possible
mesoscale affects from overnight and early morning thunderstorms. In
general the models stall the front somewhere over the central or
southern portion of our area. Also there could be leftover outflow
boundaries. If the boundary position pans out then there looks to be
another round of severe along and behind the front. PWs remain in
the 1 to 1.7 range. That along with slower steering winds nearly
parallel to the front could set up another round of heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018

Another disturbance will move over the area on Wednesday bringing
more showers and storms to the Tri-State area. Morning lows will
range in the mid 50s to upper 60s. Highs will only get in the mid

Another upper level short wave trough will move through on
Thursday  and Friday. Highs will sit in the low to mid 90s.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday is expected to be quiet.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 620 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through early/mid Sunday afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop at the end of the
TAF period (21Z Sun to 00Z Mon) - some of which will be capable
of producing large hail and sfc wind gusts to 60 knots.

Breezy SSE winds (15-25 knots) are expected through tonight at
the GLD terminal, however, winds may weaken to 10-15 knots at the
MCK terminal overnight. S/SSE winds will back to the SE and
strengthen to 25-35 knots Sunday afternoon.

With a relatively tight MSLP gradient on the eastern periphery of
the lee trough in eastern Colorado and breezy S/SSE winds
(suggesting some degree of mixing), LLWS criteria appears
unlikely to be met tonight. If surface winds weaken more than
anticipated and there is pronounced nocturnal strengthening of
low-level flow (e.g. a strong southerly LLJ), LLWS would certainly
be possible.




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