Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 251941
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
141 PM MDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday afternoon. Our next storm
system is advancing into California with southerly unstable air
moving north through Nevada into Oregon and portions of Idaho this
afternoon. There is a slight chance of severe thunderstorms
developing near Stanley and to the west of Oakley this afternoon and
early evening with hail and strong gusty winds. The exit region of
the upper level jet stream winds will provide support for a few
vigorous storms. By Saturday morning, the low will advance into
Nevada. More of the Central mountains and Caribou Highlands will be
favored for afternoon thunderstorms. A dry slot advances over the
Snake Plain, thus will watch for strong and possibly severe
thunderstorms to develop. The low advances across Nevada and Utah
both Sunday and Monday. Deep moisture wraps around the low and over
the southeastern Idaho area. Models are hinting at potential for
heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms. The difficulty is just where
that will be. Solutions vary from the South Central Highlands  to
the Arco Desert and as far west as Hailey on Saturday, and from the
Bear Lake area and South Central Highlands to as far north as Driggs
and Idaho Falls on Monday. The potential to enhance some flooding on
local rivers is there, just need to zero in on location over the
next one or two model runs. RS

.LONG TERM...Monday night through next Friday. The low over for
Memorial Day weakens and shifts toward the Northern Plains. There
will be lingering showers and thunderstorms especially east of I-15
and along the mountains from Island Park to Mackay. Even with a
little drier air working in, still expect some locally heavy
rainfall. Beyond that, we will return to southwest flow. This will
help push temperatures back up, and bring a return flow of moisture
our way. As one or more storms impact this part of the country, this
will keep the daily ritual of showers and thunderstorms going across
portions or all of eastern Idaho. Keyes

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Mostly dry conditions are expected across most of
the region today, though storms may initiate this afternoon over the
Salmon Challis NF. These storms could produce hail and gusty outflow
winds. An upper low moves into Nevada Saturday morning, keeping a
deep southerly flow over much of southeast Idaho. Showers and
isolated afternoon thunderstorms creep back into the forecast on
Saturday as the low settled in Utah. The upper low lifts out of the
area Monday afternoon with drier air moving back into the area on
Tuesday. Hinsberger

&&

.AVIATION...We continue to watch for showers and thunderstorms
heading into the Memorial Day Weekend. Through tonight, most of this
should stay away from our TAF sites. The closest would be KSUN and
even that most it COULD stay to the north and west. If we see
anything on site at a given airport, locally heavy rain is possible
along with gusty winds over 40kts and hail. Otherwise, look for VFR
weather. For Saturday, by mid/late morning...a band of showers and
storms will develop across the central mountains south into the
South Hills/Albion Mountains. This would potentially impact KSUN and
KBYI. During the day, additional development will occur eastward.
Just like today (and every other day for the past week or two), look
for potential impacts from locally heavy rain, small hail and/or
gusty downburst winds. If you are looking ahead to flying Sunday or
Memorial Day, there is an even better chance of rain and thunder as
a storm moves directly over us. Keyes

&&

.Hydrology...Rain over the last couple of days combined with
snowmelt have caused some minor flooding for a couple of local
rivers. The Henry`s Fork near Rexburg has reached minor flood stage
and forecasted to remain in flood through the middle of next week
with warmer temperatures and rain later this weekend. A flood
advisory on the Big Wood river at Hailey continues. The Big Wood
river approached minor flood stage this morning and then eased back
some. The Big Wood will peak again next Monday and Tuesday after the
next storm system. Currently the Big Wood river is not expected to
reach flood stage. However, it won`t take much more rain than is
currently forecasted for the river to reach minor flood stage next
Monday or Tuesday. The Big Lost at Howell, Antelope Creek near
Darlington, and the Teton river at St Anthony all have flood
advisories out now for being either near or slightly at minor flood
stage. Overall flooding is minimal with mainly field flooding. The
Snake River at Menan has exceeded minor flood stage and will likely
remain there through the weekend as the Henry Fork continues to
slightly rise. Use caution around fast flowing water.
Wyatt/Survick

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$



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