Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS48 KWNS 270837
SWOD48
SPC AC 270835

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Latest runs of the medium-range models show decent consistency with
handling of the main large-scale features Days 4-5, but begin to
differ Day 6 (Friday) and beyond with respect to eastward
progression of a western U.S. trough across the Rockies into the
Plains.  While enough similarity appears to exist with respect to
the progression of this trough to indicate a likely increase in
severe potential across the northern and central Plains Friday (Day
6), confidence with respect to evolution is not high enough to
warrant inclusion of an areal delineation at this time.

In the shorter term, more isolated/less organized severe potential
may across the central Plains vicinity Day 4 with hints of a subtle
southern-stream disturbance moving across the area, and possibly
over the Midwest/Ohio Valley vicinity where remnants of Alberto may
potentially reside.  For Day 5/Saturday, an increase in ridging over
the central U.S. in advance of the approaching western trough
suggests any stronger storms should be limited mainly to the
northern High Plains, while modest flow aloft expected over the east
suggests mostly disorganized convection.  In all areas, Day 4-5 risk
for severe storms appears too low at this time to warrant areal
highlights/15% probability.

..Goss.. 05/27/2018


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