Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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416
FXUS63 KGLD 201141
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
541 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 409 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Main concern will be upcoming precipitation event. Satellite
continuing to show a highly amplified pattern from the Pacific
into the western Atlantic. Storm system that will bring a change
to our weather is now moving across southern Utah and northern
Arizona. Diffluent flow aloft is spread over the area ahead of
this system.

At jet level...models are having some difficulty with the jet
segment around the southern half of the incoming system. In general
they the speeds too strong. Overall the Sref, Ukmet, and to a lesser
extent the 12z Ecmwf were doing the best. At mid levels...models
were about the same and tended to be a little too far south and east
to start with. The Gfs was slightly worse. Models started out well
with the low level thermal field.

Today/tonight...Models in much better agreement with incoming system
except for the Nam which has system further north. Will be going
toward the consensus. Again models slowed system up a little.
Upper low makes slow but steady progress from southern Utah into
southern Colorado by late this afternoon. System spins over
Colorado through most of the night before elongating and starting
its shift to the southeast.

Models are showing a lot of lift especially this afternoon into
tonight. Initially problem that has me slightly concerned is the dry
low levels which may take a while to overcome. However, almost every
piece of guidance, especially the high res/CAM guidance not only
begins to produce precipitation during the mid and late morning
hours but also has nearly identical amounts. Precipitation then
spreads across the area after that. Main thing day shift will have
to look at is slowing this down a little more.

Model guidance, WPC qpf, and GEFS probabilities support a 100
percent or nearly 100 percent chance of measurable precipitation
this afternoon into the overnight hours. Later tonight, model is
indicating a dry slot will work its way into the area from the
south.

Minor note for the high temperatures today. They will be dependent
on cloud cover and beginning of the precipitation. A lot of the
locations may reach their high temperature before noon. So lowered
maxes in the west and have the warmer high temperatures in the east.

Saturday/Saturday night...Dry slot, elongating upper low not
allowing the best wrap around, and the southeastward movement of
the upper low will limit the amounts but the chance of
precipitation should still start out fairly and then decrease in
the afternoon before ending in the evening. Did make any changes
to the what the builder/blend gave me. One thing I did insert was
fog. Should have moist low levels, decreasing clouds and light
winds after midnight. So I introduced patchy to areas of fog.

Sunday/Sunday night...Dry conditions are expected. I kept the fog
going through mid morning. Something for the day shift to take
another look at is the high temperatures. The winds will start out
light and variable and become light upslope. Am a little concerned
that this and cloud cover lingering longer than expected could keep
temperatures from warming a lot.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 203 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Not much has changed since last nights write up.  The overall
pattern in the extended period shows ridging building over the
region Monday; producing predominantly northwest flow alfot and dry
conditions.  Tuesday, an upper level short wave troughs and a
surface cold front makes their way across the High Plains.  This
system looks to produce a chance of precip and winds in the 15-25
mph range. Rest of the week, a ridge rebuilds over the region and
produce mostly dry conditions for the area.

At the end of the period, the pattern has another upper level trough
trying to move into the region.  Unlike last night`s run, the ridge
looks to block it.  So this is the next system we will keep an eye
on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 534 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Conditions will begin to get worse this afternoon as a storm
system and associated precipitation move into the region. For
Kgld, through 00z southeast winds of 21 to 26 knots with gusts
into the 29 to 35 knot range. After that the winds will decrease
into the 12 to 16 knot range with no gusts. Vfr conditions will
continue until 19z. At that time they will become mvfr. At 00z ifr
to lifr conditions will prevail for the rest of the period.

For Kmck, vfr conditions are expected until 01z. Through 18z, the
southeast winds will increase to near 16 knots with gusts to near
25 knots. This will last until 23z when the gusts stop and the
southeast winds remain near 13 knots. At 01z conditions will mvfr
and last until 07z. At 07z, lifr conditions will develop and last
through the end of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BULLER



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