Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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526 FXUS63 KGLD 011220 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 620 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few surface based thunderstorms may develop in northeast CO late this afternoon. An isolated marginally severe storm is possible, mainly between 4-7 PM MDT. A brief landspout cannot be ruled out. - Elevated thunderstorms may abruptly develop along/north of I-70 in northwest KS and southwest NE late this evening. A few severe storms capable of producing large hail are possible, mainly between 10pm-2am CDT. Storms will rapidly exit the region (into south-central and southeast NE), thereafter. - Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated to develop over portions of northeast CO and northwest KS Friday afternoon. Severe storms capable of producing damaging winds are possible, mainly late Fri aft/eve, when storms may increase in coverage and track SE toward southwestern and south-central KS. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 430 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 Overview: An upper level low near the Canada/US border (invof Alberta-Saskatchewan-Montana) will remain near-stationary in this period.. advancing ever-so-slightly eastward into Saskatchewan Thu-Thu night. Meanwhile, robust shortwave energy presently situated invof the Oregon/Idaho border (on the southern periphery of the aforementioned upper low) will progress eastward into WY this aft/eve.. then northeastward into the Dakotas (on the eastern periphery of the upper low) Thu-Thu night. Today-Tonight: Challenging temperature forecast. Expect highs ranging anywhere from the upper 50s to lower-mid 70s.. warmest in eastern CO and far southern portions of the area (Greeley/Wichita counties), coolest east of Hwy 83 and north of I-70.. where low stratus will rapidly develop late this morning and persist through the day. Convection allowing guidance suggests that a few surface- based thunderstorms may develop within a marginally unstable `return- flow warm sector` in northeast CO late this afternoon (~21-01 UTC) -- presumably in association with low-level convergence, aided (perhaps) by a southeasterly /upslope/ component to low- level flow -- as upper forcing will be well- removed from northeast CO in the aforementioned time frame. Convection allowing guidance suggests that elevated thunderstorms may abruptly develop along and north of the I-70 corridor in northwest KS and southwest NE late this evening (~04 UTC).. as southerly to easterly low-level (~850 mb) flow /warm advection/ strengthens over the region.. overrunning a cool/stable near-surface airmass.. in the presence of moderate instability (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) and 40-50 knots of effective deep layer shear. With this in mind, expect a potential for elevated supercells capable of producing large hail.. mainly along/north of I-70 in the ~04-07 UTC time frame. Storms will rapidly abate and/or exit the region into south-central and southeast Nebraska around or shortly after ~07 UTC.. as low- level warm advection abruptly terminates. Thu-Thu night: Benign weather. Expect a clearing trend late tonight and Thu morning, followed by mostly clear skies and light northerly to easterly winds during the day, with highs in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 149 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 The area is under southwesterly flow aloft at the start of the long term period with low pressure centered over Saskatchewan/Manitoba on into Ontario, upper level ridging building across the western CONUS, and our next low pressure system coming into view off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a front is forecast to push through during the Friday afternoon-Friday evening timeframe. With this, expecting gusty southerly winds shifting northerly and shower/storm chances up to ~50-70% working in from the west with QPF ranging generally from a quarter to three-quarters of an inch, locally higher amounts possible. Heading into the weekend, upper level ridging will build back in with flow becoming briefly zonal before approach of the next system has flow returning southwesterly. A disturbance skirts south of the area, then east on Sunday, and with the low level southeasterly flow allowing for increased moisture into the area, at least expect to see some increased cloud cover but also some shower/thunderstorm chances (up to around 20-30%). Guidance is coming into somewhat better agreement with regards to timing/placement of the early week system. Latest deterministic guidance shows the upper low centered in vicinity of the Great Basin Sunday evening before crossing the Rockies throughout the day Monday within an upper level trough becoming negatively tilted. Still monitoring potential for multiple hazards with this system, including gusty southerly to southwesterly winds ahead of it and associated increased fire weather concerns/possible blowing dust concerns. Additionally will be looking at the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across eastern portions Monday afternoon- evening where the dryline is forecast to set up with instability reaching around 1000-2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear values in the 50-70 knot range. A frontal passage will then sweep through the area, with gusty post-frontal winds into Tuesday. Again will be looking at potential for fire weather concerns. For temperatures, highs are forecast generally in the low-mid 70s Friday, mid 60s to lower 70s Saturday before warming into the 70 to low 80s thereafter. For low temperatures, the forecast calls for low- mid 30s to middle 40s Saturday morning, low-mid 40s Sunday morning, middle 40s to middle 50s Monday morning, and 40s Tuesday, Wednesday mornings. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 545 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 GLD: VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR late this morning and early this afternoon, further deteriorating to IFR and possibly LIFR at/around sunset (~02Z) this evening.. in association with stratus. While showers/storms cannot be ruled out invof the GLD terminal late this afternoon (~22-02Z), at this time.. the majority of convective activity is anticipated to be confined further north. Expect conditions /ceilings/ to improve to VFR near the end of the TAF period.. 06-12Z Thu. Easterly winds at ~10 knots will veer to the ESE and increase to 15-25 knots late this morning.. further veering to the SE this afternoon. Winds will shift to the N or NE at 15-25 knots this evening, backing to the NW and decreasing to 10-15 knots near the end of the TAF period as a lee cyclone in southeast CO weakens and progresses eastward across southern KS. MCK: VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR (in association with stratus) this afternoon, further deteriorating to IFR and possibly LIFR around or shortly after sunset (02-04Z) this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are possible late this evening into tonight.. mainly in the 04-07Z time frame. Expect conditions /ceilings/ to improve to VFR near the end of the TAF period.. 09-12Z Thu. NE winds at ~10 knots will veer to the E or ESE and increase to 15-25 knots late this morning and persist through the afternoon. Winds will back to the NE or N at 15-25 knots this evening and persist overnight.. decreasing to ~10 knots by the end of the TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...Vincent