National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXAK67 PAJK 142222
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
222 PM AKDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SHORT TERM...Onshore flow continues to diminish across the area
as a broad region of low pressure over the Gulf of AK moves off to
the SE. The upper level trough associated with the low will fully
depart the area through Monday, being replaced by a ridge which is
currently building off to the W downstream of an impulse of energy
entering the Bering. For SE AK, this means that, with the
departure of the remaining rain and snow showers from N to S
through the evening and overnight time frame, dry weather will be
the big story through much of the week. Temperatures will rapidly
adjust to a more diurnal pattern, with high temperatures reaching
into the 50s across much of the panhandle in the heat of the day,
while low temperatures fall back below freezing for many
locations during the overnight time frame.

As skies clear out and winds diminish, anticipate the potential
for widespread fog during the overnight hours, especially Sunday
night, with visibilities potentially being reduced at times. The
fog that does develop will clear out through the morning as solar
radiation sees the warming of the boundary layer and the
subsequent decoupling of temperatures and dewpoints. Otherwise,
small crafts due to wave heights are expected for parts of the
outer Gulf, while broad northerly flow takes hold across the
panhandle, resulting in small craft conditions for Lynn Canal
beginning Sunday night and lasting through much of Monday
morning.

The forecast remains largely on track. Slightly warmed high
temperatures for Monday, while likewise cooling low temperatures
for some locations during the evening and overnight time frames.
Added fog for parts of the area for Monday night.

.LONG TERM...The major theme for this medium range forecast
period is one of drying weather and warming conditions. By next
Thursday, locations across Southeast Alaska will be experiencing
daily high temperatures from 5 to as much as 10 degrees above
normal for the middle of April. As is usually the case, more
southerly locations will see the warmest weather with some spots
south of Frederick Sound getting up to 60 degrees or possibly even
higher. Currently, Thursday or Friday are looking like the
warmest days based on ensembles, but we won`t exactly be going
into a deep freeze by the end of next weekend. I think Spring
temperatures may have finally arrived for good in Southeast
Alaska. Well before Tuesday morning precipitation across the
region will have ended and cloud cover will have dissipated.
Overnight lows will still be below freezing Tuesday night as a
result of the clearing skies, so don`t leave those hanging baskets
of flowers out overnight just yet. Still, overnight lows will
also rise as the week goes by with most, if not all, locations
near sea level remaining above freezing by Wednesday night. Look
for diurnal temperature ranges of 20 degrees or more under these
mostly clear skies with that temperature spread remaining steady
as both the daily highs and overnight lows rise through the week.

Looking out to next weekend, ensemble blends (as well as the
official forecast) suggest a return of precipitation. Granted, 7
day into the future is a hard target for a deterministic model to
hit, but every single deterministic model we can see right now
that runs that far into the future indicates continued dry
weather. Statistically speaking, the ensemble models out-perform
deterministic models that far into the future, but this forecaster
is counting on a long shot win. Why? A very strong surface ridge
of high pressure will stand between SEAK and the next significant
low pressure system towards the end of the week. Additionally,
SEAK is coming into our driest part of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...Lingering, stubborn showers in the southern half of
the panhandle with varying conditions between VFR and IFR for
mainly CIGs will continue to slide south during the evening
timeframe. Continuing clearing skies across the northern panhandle
will expand southward over the course of the afternoon and
evening. Eventually, northerly flow and VFR conditions will be the
main event for an extended period. There certainly is the
possibility for fog tonight, however, whether that fog will extend
over TAF sites are another matter entirely. Rest assured,
however, fog will be present, mainly in the central and southern
panhandle with clearing skies.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....Fritsch
AVIATION...NC

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau