451
FXUS63 KAPX 281347
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
947 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers again today into tonight with isolated thunderstorms
  possible.

- Rain and isolated thunderstorms Monday.

- Active pattern with rain late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Only minor tweaks to the inherited forecast this morning with
more numerous showers near and south of M-55 that`ll continue to
gradually work north later this morning and afternoon. For more
details, see the short-term forecast period below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave troughing will continue to slide east of the Great Lakes
today as ridging temporarily folds over the region. Meanwhile,
longwave troughing ejecting over the Great Plains early this morning
will lift into the Great Lakes by Monday morning. A cold front will
continue to push south of the CWA today, eventually mixing back
north as a warm front late tonight into Monday as a surface cyclone
associated with aforementioned troughing progresses across the Upper
Midwest.

Forecast Details:

Showers today/tonight -- Isolated to scattered showers will continue
across some parts of northern Michigan through the early morning
hours behind the frontal passage, with most places seeing little to
no additional measurable rainfall. After this, chances for showers
will gradually increase from south to north today -- especially
later this afternoon and tonight with enhanced warm, moist
advection/isentropic ascent overspreading the Northwoods as the
aforementioned system works closer to the region. While not
expected, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled our later today and
tonight. Otherwise, much cooler temperatures are in store today as
highs stay in the 50s for most areas this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper low and subsequent sfc low pressure system will lift through
the Upper Midwest on Monday spreading showers, in addition to
isolated convection, into northern Michigan. Another piece of energy
moving across the Upper Midwest and into Ontario Tuesday night into
Wednesday will produce generally light rain across the area,
favoring northern portions which will be closer to the forcing.
Potent trough digs into the center portion of the county late week
forcing moisture and the chances for precipitation into northern
Michigan late week as it advects northeastward.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Warm, moist advection takes place on Monday as sfc low pressure
system lifts to the northwest across the Upper Midwest.
Consequently, expect showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
area. Another good shot for wetting rains for some. Few
thunderstorms possible/will remain Monday afternoon before drier air
works into the region Monday night. Another piece of energy will
pass off to the north Tuesday night into Wednesday with generally
light showers favoring the farther north you go in northern
Michigan.

Energy enters the center of the CONUS mid-late next week, advecting
moisture (PWs ~200% normal) and precipitation into Michigan as it
moves northeastward. Guidance all suggest this outcome, just
slightly different positioning of the upper feature and thus the
subsequent sfc low and steadiest precipitation chances. Sfc low
generally tracks near or to the northwest of N MI, thus could be
another shot for thunderstorms. Ensembles show low probabilities for
>500j/kg CAPEs at this time so just looking like rain with some
isolated thunderstorms possible. After this system/frontal boundary
passes it looks to turn cooler into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Light isolated to scattered showers will continue this morning
before better rain chances return later this afternoon into tonight.
As moisture spreads northward across the area, VFR/MVFR CIGs this
morning are expected to drop to IFR from south to north this
afternoon and evening. LIFR CIGs may also be possible for a time
tonight. Light north winds will gradually turn to east winds today,
gusting as high as 20-25 kts late this afternoon through tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 PM EDT Monday
     for LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Monday
     for LMZ323-341-342.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJG
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...DJC