Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 232341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
641 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Latest GOES-East IR imagery showing a good amount of convective
debris (mid/high cloud) over our area this afternoon. Despite this
cloud cover, temperatures responding nicely with readings at 2 pm
ranging from the middle to upper 70s.

For tonight, warm air advection will continue across the area with
amplification of mid-level ridge. Ridging should keep the area dry
for the most part with the exception of areas north of I-94. This
area could see a few showers and storms being on the eastern
periphery of 850mb moisture transport. Will hold precipitation
probabilities around 30 percent. Otherwise, plan on a partly cloudy
night with relatively warm readings in the 60s.

Amplified mid-level ridge stays in place Thursday for suppression of
deep convection. However, will keep a small-end shower chance in for
areas north of I-94 as this area will remain on the eastern
periphery of moisture transport/weak isentropic lift. As for
temperatures, get ready for summerlike readings well into the 80s.

Shower/thunderstorm chances increase from west to east Thursday
night as a mid-level trough over the Plains increases 850mb moisture
transport/isentropic lift into the area. Look for lows in the middle

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Mid-level trough and weak surface cold front move through the area
Friday. MUCAPE values will be in the 2000-3000J/kg range, but bulk
shear will be lacking -only around 20 kt. So, not anticipating any
widespread severe weather at this point, but cannot discount some
stronger pulse-type storms with small hail and higher wind gusts and
heavy downpours, given precipitable water values in the 1.5 to 1.8
inch range. Otherwise, looking like a very warm humid day with highs
in the 80s and dew points in the middle 60s.

A secondary mid-level trough drops through the area Saturday but
appears most forcing will be north of I-94 for any shower/thunder
chances. Look for highs again in the 85-90 degree range.

Summer-like pattern continues through Memorial Day into Tuesday as a
strong mid-level ridge holds in place across the region. There will
be some small-end shower/thunder chances here and there as several
weak troughs eject out of the Rockies into the Plains. However, most
of this energy looks to hold west of the area. Plan on highs Sunday
and Memorial Day staying well into the 80s to near 90, cooling a few
degrees by Tuesday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase going into Wednesday as a
strong trough ejects out of the Plains into our region.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period.




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