Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 132323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
623 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Dry conditions will continue through the day Wednesday as dry air
remains in place across the Northland. The lake effect snow and
clouds that lingered over portions of northwest Wisconsin this
morning are gradually diminishing this afternoon per current radar
and GOES East satellite imagery. Surface high pressure will glide
southeast over far southwest Minnesota this afternoon and evening. A
mid-level shortwave, with an associated cold front, will dive
southward over the region late tonight and into mid-morning
Wednesday. The main impact from this shortwave should be an increase
in cloud cover, especially across our northern tier of counties as
stronger 850 mb cold air advection occurs. However, little if any
precipitation is expected with this shortwave as the atmospheric
soundings are progged to be too dry to support any precip. Although
the cloud cover will increase by dawn Wednesday morning, the high
pressure should bring a period of mostly clear skies, which should
set up some good radiational cooling coupled with fairly weak winds
overnight. We lowered the overnight lows by a a degree or two due to
this expected scenario. Overnight lows should drop into the lower to
middle teens, with the warmest temperatures near the Brainerd Lakes
eastward over the South Shore of Lake Superior.

For Wednesday morning, expected partly to mostly cloudy skies to
linger along Lake Superior where higher relative humidity air will
become situated as the cold front passes through. Not expecting any
precipitation with this front on Wednesday. High temperatures will
range from the lower 30s over the tip of the Minnesota Arrowhead,
into the upper 30s and lower 40s further inland.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Not much variety expected in the long-term forecast period, with
mostly dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures through early
next week.

Some lake effect snow showers will be possible over the Lake
Superior snowbelt region Wednesday night and Thursday morning as
colder 850 mb temperatures move into the region. A channel of
positive vorticity advection from tonight`s shortwave will linger
across our east, further supporting this lake enhancement. Very
little QPF is progged to fall over Ashland and Iron counties,
with the bulk of it expected into Upper Michigan. Very dry low-
level air will dive southward into the region along-side the
western fringe of the trough as mid-level ridging over the
Intermountain West states will slowly translates eastward. This
dry air should lead to another good radiational cooling night,
especially along the International Border, where skies are
expected to be mostly clear. Lows Thursday morning should drop
into the single digits above zero across the north, with middle
teens across the south. Eventually, the dry air will overtake the
favorable moisture, and diminish the chances of lake effect snow.
Ultimately, this very dry air will persist through the day Sunday
as high pressure dominates over the region, with mostly sunny
skies through the upcoming weekend, and near or above seasonal
temperatures. High temperatures in the middle 30s to lower 40s are
expected for this stretch.

As far as the potential system to impact the central Great Plains
and Midwest states, the 13.00z suite of guidance has continued the
trend of shifting things southward. The models are still
indicating a broad longwave trough to persist over the Pacific
coast states, which will eventually eject a few waves of energy
eastward. The GFS/ECMWF/GEM models are in fairly good agreement
with bringing the shortwaves south of the Northland, and the
consensus blends have actually decreased the chances of
precipitation over our southern counties. Only the GFS model
brings any QPF across our southern counties during the day Monday,
with the ECMWF and GEM models both keeping conditions dry in
these areas. Things seem to be trending towards little in the way
of precipitation. Despite the models trending drier, clouds are
still expected to increase from the south during the day Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

High pressure will be in the neighborhood of the terminals through
the forecast. Look for VFR. Some LLWS is still in the cards for
HIB/BRD/HYR through the overnight hours, ending no later than 14Z,
as a low level jet cruises through this area.


DLH  18  40  14  33 /   0   0   0   0
INL  15  36   7  32 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  18  40  16  36 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  14  40  15  34 /   0   0  10   0
ASX  16  38  18  31 /   0  10  10   0




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