Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 172048
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
348 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

A ridge of high pressure to the north should nudge a sharp vort
max to the south of the Northland heading into Wednesday. Some of
the ensemble guidance glides a little more QPF to the north into
our southern forecast area, but even those members largely keep
the precip shield along the MN/IA border. That is the main weather
maker in the short term. Precip type should be a mix of rain and
snow, but given the shallow nature of the moisture light drizzle
or flurries may be more likely. Either way, little to no
accumulation is expected.

Another item to mention is that models are having difficulty
resolving some of the wind gusts that are being reported at ob
sites. So, manually forced gusts into the range of observations
for this afternoon/evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Most of the period will have relatively quiet weather with
temperatures warming up to climo.

Beginning Wednesday night, high pressure builds into the region
bringing clearing skies and drier conditions. The warming trend
starts on Thursday with highs reaching the 50s in portions of the
CWA. Temperatures continue to rise with highs warming above climo
ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s by Sunday. Sunday night into
Tuesday, a cold front from a stacked low over Manitoba, Canada dips
down into northeastern Minnesota. Kept slight chance of rain/snow
with this frontal passage. Temperatures slightly decrease on Tuesday
after the front exits the area but remain around climo.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Largely VFR, but a storm system will move across Iowa and a cloud
shield will potentially bring MVFR clouds northward to our
southern TAF sites after 06Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  26  38  25 /   0  10  20  10
INL  45  25  45  24 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  44  28  41  27 /   0  10  30  10
HYR  40  24  37  26 /  10   0  30  10
ASX  38  25  36  27 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ141-
     142.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...Wolfe/KC
AVIATION...Wolfe



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