Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 241721

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
121 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018


Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

High pressure will bring fair weather today and Friday then weak
low pressure will spread some clouds and the chance for showers
and thunderstorms over the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Forecast issue in the near term is timing and coverage of showers
and thunderstorms from late Friday through Saturday. The trend is
for a slightly slower arrival with only a slight chance across the
northwest fringe of the forecast area on Friday afternoon and
reaching the southeast zones by late Friday night.

Instability and shear are weak so no severe storms are expected
but PWATS increase to about 1.5 inches Friday night and Saturday
and isolated heavy downpours are possible.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Very mild and rather humid wx will continue through the holiday
weekend with high temperatures in the 80s. There is potential for a
few showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday mainly during the
afternoon and early evening as instability builds and with some
forcing from a backdoor cold front. However most of the day should
be dry.

A high pressure ridge will build in for the early to middle portion
of next week bringing fair wx with seasonably mild temps. There is
still a small chance for subtropical moisture to move up into our
region late Wednesday or Thursday. However confidence in this
occurring is low given large medium range guidance discrepancies
regarding the evolution and eventual movement of the remnants of the
potential tropical system over the Gulf Coast region this weekend
into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

The aviation weather pattern looks rather quiet through the
period. VFR weather is forecasted with lighter than normal winds.
With the atmosphere continuing to dry out...the fog risk is
diminished. I did add wind gusts to KMKG by noon Friday....but
those should remain under 20 knots.


Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Dense fog is still a possibility through the morning but the worst
of it is currently remaining well offshore. Winds and waves will
remain relatively light today and tonight with some increase on
Friday as south winds increase to 15 to 20 knots.


Issued at 318 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Rivers will continue to fall slowly for the next couple of days.
Significant rainfall is not expected.




LONG TERM...Laurens
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