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000
FXUS61 KGYX 280324
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1124 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will press through northern New England tonight
through Sunday bringing intermittent showers and temperatures on
on upward trend into Monday. Monday will be warm away from the
coast, with cooler temperatures along the coast where the sea
breeze develops. Low pressure approaches Tuesday into Wednesday
for more widespread showers and cooler temperatures. High
pressure will build in for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
1124 PM Update...Introduced likely PoP a little sooner in
southwest New Hampshire this evening, and blended in some 00Z
hires data into PoP trends through tonight and into tomorrow.
Bands of light rain showers will push in from the west, but they
will be meeting a dry air with relatively weak forcing...
making it tough to get much, if any, rain to the surface.

713 PM Update... Cirrus continues to spread and thicken over
our area, with light rain crossing into the Greens upstream in
Vermont. Little change to the forecast for now except to blend
into observations. Will monitor saturation trends to see if I
can`t tighten up the PoP forecast as light rain meets a very dry
airmass over our area this evening and overnight.

Previously...
Surface high pressure centered along the southern New England
coastline will shift slightly offshore tonight while a warm
front over the eastern Great Lakes presses into western New
England. This front will bring increasing clouds overnight with
chances for showers, mainly over New Hampshire. Lows tonight
will be in the low to mid 40s across New Hampshire where cloud
cover and increasing dewpoints will limit cooling, while much of
Maine drops into the low to mid 30s where air mass will be
drier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A short wave and associated surface low tracks across northern
Quebec Sunday with the warm front making some progress into New
Hampshire and far western Maine. Forcing for ascent will be
limited as a mid level ridge axis remains near overhead.
Nevertheless, there will be some chances for showers across the
mountains during the day with shower chances expanding to the
coast Sunday evening. Temperatures aloft will rise to around
+15C at H9 across New Hampshire resulting in highs climbing into
the low 70s. This warm air aloft does not quite get into Maine
where highs will be in the 60s across the interior and 50s near
the coast.

Relatively quiet weather continues Sunday night with low chances
for showers and low in the 40s to 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Summary:
*Monday looks to be the first 70F+ day of 2024 for a lot of people
in southern NH.

*More seasonable Tuesday and Wednesday, with showers moving through
in the Tues-Wednesday morning timeframe. Accumulations will be light.

*Tranquil Wednesday and Thursday with warmer temps returning on
Thursday and possibly more unsettled weather returning on Friday.

Discussion:
A strong upper-level high in Canada will pull apart a mid-
latitude system over the Great Lakes. Ahead of this system,
ridging will persist and will bring some of the warmest weather
we have seen since last Fall. High temperatures above 70F are
likely Monday across southern New Hampshire and even possibly as
far north as Lebanon or Fryeburg. Temperatures likely return to
average after the passage of the front as well as some cold air
advection from a quasi- backdoor front stalled over New
Brunswick inches westward into Maine.

The remnants of the aforementioned decaying system could bring some
showers into the region on Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
Measurable rainfall is possible across southern and western New
Hampshire, but any rain totals should be relatively light in nature
and not exceed a half inch.

High pressure moves into the region, bringing a tranquil Wednesday
and Thursday into the forecast before a similar decaying low brings
a few more showers into the area on Friday. Ridging looks to return
on Thursday, with 70s briefly returning to the forecast for the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR will prevail into tonight. Skies become
BKN to OVC tonight with cigs potentially lowering to MVFR
thresholds Sunday morning. Sunday will likely see mainly VFR
with tempo periods of MVFR cigs as a front brings scattered
showers into northern and western areas. Chances for showers
continue into Sunday night for more tempo MVFR conditions.

Long Term...
No restrictions expected on Monday with partly
cloudy skies and northerly winds expected. Some showers are
possible Tuesday through Wednesday morning, with some occasional
MVFR expected. Otherwise no notable restrictions expected in
the extended forecast at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds tonight
through Sunday night.

Long Term...
Seas of 2-3 ft with 15kt winds expected on Monday. Winds
quickly flip Monday afternoon as the sea breeze moves in but winds
return to more calmer northerlies in the evening. Northerly winds
pick up overnight, peaking at 20kts. An SCA is possible but not
expected for Monday night / Tuesday morning. Winds and seas
remain below SCA level after Tuesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Casey
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Palmer