874
FXUS61 KILN 041049
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
649 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and moist airmass will remain in place across the region
into the middle part of next week, leading to occasional
periods of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level short wave energy will lift northeast across the mid
Ohio Valley through the day. Forcing isn`t terribly great, but
in a moist airmass, this has been enough to maintain scattered
shower activity across southeast portions of our area so far
this morning. Flow aloft is very light, so this activity will
very slowly pivot up across mainly eastern portions of our area
through mid morning.

As we head through late morning and into this afternoon, some
weak instability will develop as afternoon highs push into the mid
to possibly upper 70s. This will allow for a continuation of
occasional showers along with a chance for thunderstorms. Given
the light flow and general lack of deeper shear, the overall
severe threat will be low. However, with PWs up around 1.5
inches and the slow storm movement, some heavier downpours will
be possible today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As we lose the daytime heating and the mid level short wave
moves off to our northeast, expect an overall decreasing trend
in pcpn this evening and into the overnight hours. Lows tonight
will mostly be in the lower 60s.

Another mid level short wave will move east across the Great
Lakes region on Sunday. An associated weak surface wave will
move across the southern Great Lakes while a trailing weak cold
front moves east across our area during the day on Sunday. This
will lead to additional chances for showers and thunderstorms,
especially across eastern portions of our fa Sunday afternoon.
With a little better deep layer shear, a few strong to severe
storms may be possible across our eastern areas Sunday
afternoon. The main severe threat would be damaging winds.
Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 70s northwest to around
80 degrees in our southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A strong surface high over MI will push drier air into the northern
Ohio Valley behind a departing cold front.  A s/w undercutting a
mean H5 ridge will move east and into the Ohio Valley on Monday. The
earlier cold front will have draped w-e through southern CWA Monday,
and then begin to lift northeastward as a warm front overnight. The
region will be warm-sectored on Tuesday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected with daytime heating. Earlier showers with
embedded thunderstorms on Monday/overnight look to be triggered by
the surface front.

Tuesday night, warm sector showers will scatter out as a convective
line works in from the west ahead of a H5 s/w and trailing the
exiting upper ridge. This looks to be behaving as a cold front, but
the only front mildly shown in guidance is a shift from the highest
moisture on Tuesday to slightly drier air (back to what has been
seen) overnight.

A brief drying on Wednesday will change after daytime as strong
southwest flow brings a continued feed of deep moisture that will be
wrung out overnight. This will be the most prominent rainfall period
in the extended forecast. While some showers may linger into
Thursday/Thursday evening ahead of a H5 trough, the region should be
fairly worked-over enough to where upper level lift will not
overcome an expected stable airmass behind Wed night`s rain.

Low chance pops continue through the forecast but the overall end of
the period beginning Thursday evening looks to be dry and cooler.
Cooler to the extent that from Thursday night through Saturday it
will be near seasonal normals. Beginning with a brief cooling on
Monday, temperatures will warm through Wednesday and cool through
the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak surface low pressure system will lift northeast across
the area this morning. This will lead to fairly widespread
showers across central Ohio over the next few hours with
isolated showers elsewhere across the area. Cigs continue to
vary significantly this morning, ranging from LIFR in spots to
VFR in other areas. Will continue to hedge with prevailing MVFR
cigs through the morning hours along with some tempo IFR cigs.
Areas of MVFR BR will also persist through the morning hours.

As we begin to destabilize this afternoon, cigs will trend up
into VFR and scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected.
With a moist airmass in place, some locally heavy downpours
will be possible with some of the thunderstorms this afternoon.
This activity should taper off heading into this evening with
mainly dry conditions expected through the remainder of the TAF
period. However, cigs will trend back down into MVFR later
tonight and into Sunday morning.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times each day from
Sunday through Wednesday. MVFR conditions are possible Monday
morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...JGL