Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 180803

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
303 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Today and tonight...Forecast confidence is high.

High pressure will provide sunny skies, light winds and warm
temperatures today. You folks near Lake Michigan know the
drill...a lake breeze will kick in by early to mid afternoon,
cooling things down quickly. Lake temps are still running in the
mid to upper 30s. The lake counties should still climb to around
50 before the cold lake air pushes in. This airmass is dry and we
should see dew points in the upper teens and 20s again. Things
are getting dry out there.

Low pressure passing well south of Wisconsin later tonight and
Monday will bring an increasing northeast flow to the area. This
will mark the beginning of a cooler period weather for a few days.

Monday through Saturday...Forecast confidence high...lesser
confidence Saturday due to precip type uncertainty

Models in very strong agreement to start the period with bowling
ball like area of low pressure rolling from the southern plains
into the Ohio and Tenn River Valleys...staying well to the south
and no impact here outside of backdoor cold front as high pressure
moves across Ontario to the north Monday into Tuesday. Below
normal temps likely with the northerly or northeasterly
winds. Wednesday the high still lingers across James Bay near the
Ontario/Quebec border...dry with below temps continuing. Thursday
into Friday a area of low pressure will develop coming off the
southern Rockies and start to push more southerly winds into the
region with temps nearing normal highs in the lower to mid 40s.The
low looks to stay to the south of the state with rain/snow
possible starting most likely Friday and continuing into Saturday.
Uncertainty exists with track of the low...surface temps and the
thermal profile aloft. All which will define the
precipitation type...current trends would be for a most likely
scenario of cold rain turning to snow Saturday...but much time
yet for that to change as we get zeroed in on the solution.



VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Calm winds
early this morning will become light westerly. A lake breeze will
develop along Lake Michigan by around 19z-20z today, swinging
winds around to the east northeast...then steadily push inland.
Look for northeast winds to overspread the entire area this



Light winds this morning will become east to northeast and
increase this afternoon into tonight. Small craft advisory
conditions are expected for Monday through Tuesday night due to
the brisk northeast flow and building waves.




Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Monday through Saturday...ABS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.