National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KMOB 200547
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1247 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions are prevailing across the region at issuance time.
Low stratus with IFR or LIFR ceilings are expected to develop
later tonight and spread across the area through the morning
hours. Patchy fog may also develop later tonight reducing
visibilities to MVFR or lower. Fog may briefly become dense a
little before sunrise in a few spots. Fog should dissipate and low
stratus should begin to lift by the latter part of the morning.
Added a PROB30 group for the MOB/BFM TAF sites from 2022/2102, but
most of the deeper convection is expected to stay just off to the
north. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 418 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Upper-level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will gradually shift
eastward through the period. This will allow for zonal flow aloft
to become more southwesterly by Saturday night and into Sunday.
Several embedded impulses are expected to move overhead throughout
the weekend before the main shortwave digs in Sunday
evening/night. At the surface, a cold front, currently located
over the Tennessee River Valley, will continue to slowly push
southward tonight, entering our CWA Saturday morning. This front
is expected to stall somewhere around the I-65 corridor on
Saturday and linger in place through early Sunday morning before
finally being pushed offshore by a high building over the central
US.

Except for a few isolated showers over our far northern counties,
dry conditions are expected to continue through tonight. Rain
chances begin to increase tomorrow morning as the front sags into
our area and the first impulse moves overhead. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms are anticipated by the afternoon for
areas north of I-10. Subsidence from the ridge over the Gulf
should help to limit rain chances near the coast. Looking inland,
latest guidance suggests that some deep-layer shear will be
present as the impulse moves overhead (0-6km shear of around 30 to
35kts), although shear values in the lower levels will remain
rather weak (less than 15kts). This could still lead to a few
loosely organized storms, or perhaps one or two multicellular
clusters, especially considering the ample instability that will
be in place. Modeled soundings suggest that areas south of the
front could see SBCAPE values as high as 2000-2500 J/kg. Even
areas north of the front could see elevated instability remaining
in place, with MUCAPE values of around 1000-1500 J/kg. It should
be noted that profiles do look to remain rather saturated, which
could hinder the overall downdraft intensity of storms. That being
said, cannot rule out a few strong to severe storms (particularly
from cell mergers), capable of producing gusty to damaging winds
and hail up to quarter size. Rain chances decrease by the evening
hours as the first series of impulses moves away from the region.

The next set of impulses pass overhead on Sunday, helping to bring
another round of rain to the area. With the front pushing into the
Gulf during the early morning hours, the overall environment
looks to remain rather stable. Therefore, only expecting an
overrunning rain event with very little, if any, storms for
Sunday. Rain chances begin to decrease from west to east by late
Sunday afternoon as the upper-level shortwave trough begins to
push into the area and drier air filters in from the north.

Warm conditions continue through tomorrow, with lows tonight only
dropping into the mid to upper 60s and highs tomorrow topping out
in the upper 70s to low 80s. By Saturday night and into Sunday,
the temperature forecast becomes highly dependent on the
positioning of the front. Current forecast calls for lows Saturday
night to range from the low 50s in our northwestern zones to the
low 60s in our southeastern zones. Similarly, highs on Sunday will
range from the low 60s northwest to the low 70s southeast. A
moderate risk of rip currents tonight will decrease to a low risk
for the weekend. Lastly, patchy to areas of fog will once again be
possible tonight. Fog could briefly become dense in a few
localized spots. /96

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 418 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The upper level trough will move across the Tennessee Valley and
adjacent Gulf Coast states Sunday night, before quickly shifting
eastward across the southeast U.S. Monday. A dry northwesterly
flow pattern aloft will generally across our forecast area through
much of the coming week behind this departing feature. Surface
high pressure is forecast to build from the Plains to the Gulf
Coast states early next week, with surface ridging remaining
prevalent into Thursday. Shortwave ridging aloft will build over
the forecast area by Friday. Temperatures will start off chilly
Monday and Tuesday morning, with lows in the 40s over inland
locations and in the lower to mid 50s along the immediate coast.
Highs in the 70s Monday and Tuesday should trend warmer in the 80s
over most inland areas during the middle to latter part of the
week (mid 70s to near 80 along the coast). /21

MARINE...
Issued at 418 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow prevails through
Saturday night. A cold front moves across the marine area on
Sunday with a moderate offshore flow becoming prevalent into early
next week. Winds begin to subside and start to turn easterly and
then southeasterly by Tuesday. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      59  66  46  73  49  76  53  81 /  30  70  10   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   63  71  51  73  53  74  56  79 /  10  60  10   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      65  72  54  73  56  74  59  77 /  10  60  10   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   58  66  43  72  44  78  49  82 /  40  70  10   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  51  61  42  70  43  78  50  82 /  60  70   0   0   0   0   0  10
Camden      53  61  42  69  43  76  49  80 /  60  70   0   0   0   0   0  10
Crestview   60  71  46  74  46  78  48  83 /  20  70  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob