Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 162035

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
335 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

A quiet remainder of today with widespread 80s and classic
summertime afternoon cu field.  Clouds will dissipate this evening
with a mostly clear night with light winds expected.

For tomorrow, a frontal boundary will become nearly stationary
across northern MN and juxtaposed with elevated shortwave energy
later in the day. The best chance for precip certainly does look to
be off to our northwest in the vicinity of said front and shortwave
energy.  However, a backdoor cold front looks to drop in from the
northeast which could lead to showers and possibly a couple rumbles
of thunder along the boundary in the afternoon as it pushes into
central MN and western WI.  Have indicated mostly slight chance or
chance PoPs for this possibility.  Showery activity should dissipate
tomorrow evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

The main concern in the long term is the system set to eject form
the Rockies at the end of the week. The main change from the
previous forecast was to slow the evolution of the frontal
boundary and hence decrease pops Saturday. The instability also
looks more limited but should be enough to generate some

With the potential slower evolution of the system, Sunday could
very well turn out to be the wetter of the two weekend days if
this trend continues. In fact, the GFS would indicate the precip
largely holds off across the forecast area until the arrival of
the upper low later Sunday, and mainly targeting the southern
third of Minnesota.

Looking ahead to next week, ridging will build in from the
southwest and there could be a few rounds of showers and storms
throughout the week. The temperature trends continue to look
warmer than normal for next week with the ridge building in.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

VFR conditions expected. SW winds around 5 to 10 knots with FEW to
SCT cu this afternoon around 6-7 kft. Winds become light and
variable overnight before becoming easterly around 5-8 knots mid
morning tomorrow.

KMSP...There is a chance for showers tomorrow afternoon. Only
about a 20-30% chance the airports sees any showers impact
directly, but a possibility to be aware of.

Fri...VFR. Chc -SHRA/-TS/MVFR late. Wind SSE 10G20 kts.
Sat...VFR with MVFR possible. Chc -SHRA/-TS. Wind north 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR with MVFR possible. Chc -SHRA/-TS. Wind NNE 10-15 kts.




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