Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 241800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

A mid-level low pressure system will bring a few flurries or
light snow showers to the area tonight, then dry weather will
return Sunday. Dry weather will continue into early next week
with a gradual warming trend.


As of 130 PM AM EDT...Some clouds were starting to overspread
the area from the north. Still skies will be partly sunny this

Low level lapse rates will have steepened considerably coupled
with some sunshine, should allow for deep mixing with temps
reaching the lower/mid 40s in valleys, and perhaps approaching
50 near POU. Eventually, clouds will gradually redevelop across
higher terrain this afternoon, eventually expanding into valley
areas toward sunset. Isolated sprinkles/flurries may also
develop toward late afternoon, mainly for higher terrain areas
(which would be mainly flurries). Also, similar to yesterday,
with low levels remaining dry, probably more virga than much in
the way of actual precipitation for valley areas this afternoon.

Mid and upper level low pressure digs south across the area
tonight. Expect to see lots of echoes on radar later tonight but
once again the low levels will be rather dry and much of this
precipitation will not reach the ground. At this time we expect
a few flurries or light snow showers from the Hudson Valley
westward, while further east snow showers will be a bit heavier
and more persistent and a light coating of snow could accumulate
by daybreak Sunday over the Green mountains, Berkshires and
Taconics. Low temperatures Saturday night will be mainly in the


Isolated to scattered snow showers will linger through Sunday
morning, especially for areas south and east of Albany, where
coverage is expected to be greater as the upper level low drifts
southward across SE New York and southern New England. Dry
conditions should return during the afternoon, as the upper low
moves off shore and surface high pressure starts to ridge in
from Quebec. It will be another cool day, with temperatures
running around 5-10 degrees below normal.

Dry conditions with clearing skies expected Sunday night, as
upper level heights rise across the region, with strong surface
high pressure building across SE Quebec and northern New
England. It will be cold, with lows ranging from the teens
across the mountains to lower to mid 20s in the valleys.

More fair and dry weather will occur Monday through Monday
night with high pressure remaining in control. An upper level
ridge will become firmly established over the region, resulting
in clear skies. Decent mixing will lead to efficient warming
despite the cool start, with highs getting back near normal for
this time of year, mainly in the 40s. Overnight lows will be
cool again with the dry air mass remaining in place.


Temperatures will finally start to warm up during the long term
period, with above normal readings expected by late in the work

The period starts on Tuesday with high pressure moving east of
the region, with a return southerly flow developing around the
periphery of the departing high. This should result in a good
warming response with sunshine expected through much of the day.
High temps will be very close to normal for late March. A
decaying frontal boundary will approach from the west Tuesday
night into Wednesday, but should weaken considerably as it
encounters a strong upper level ridge along the east coast. The
best chance of showers will be for areas north and west of the
Capital District, but only light QPF is expected. It will be
mild with a continued southerly flow ahead of the decaying
boundary, but mostly cloudy which will limit warming somewhat.
Still, temps should reach or exceed 50 in much of the Hudson
Valley Wednesday afternoon.

The remnants of the front will become diffuse and stall across
the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Will mention slight to
low chance pops during this time to account for a few possible
light showers, but it should be mainly dry and mild during this
time. The next chance of widespread rainfall looks to be
Thursday night into Friday, as a wave of low pressure tracks NE
along the old stalled frontal boundary. Model guidance
(GFS/ECMWF) in somewhat good agreement with tracking the surface
cyclone through our area. Due to southerly flow and good
moisture transport, will have to watch for potentially moderate
to perhaps heavy rainfall. This will depend on how quickly the
wave moves through and the eventual moisture flux. Colder air is
then expected to filter back into the region late Friday in
wake of this system.


High pressure in place today will allow VFR conditions to prevail
through sunset. We are monitoring a backdoor cold front tonight that
could lead to MVFR or IFR conditions into early tomorrow morning.
Subsidence in the wake of the front tomorrow morning should allow
most TAF sites to rebound back to VFR conditions.

Scattered to broken sky coverage expected this afternoon as many of
the TAF sites reach their convective temperature but ceilings should
remain VFR. Between 06z/25 and 09z/25, a backdoor cold front will
push in from New England, progressing northeast to southwest. This
could lead to MVFR (perhaps isolated IFR) conditions including the
potential for a few snow showers with the greatest potential at PSF
and GFL. By 12z/25, the front should push southeast of our TAF sites
enabling a return to VFR conditions.

North-northwest winds prevail this afternoon but as the backdoor
cold front arrives later this evening, winds should shift north-
northeast. Sustained winds range 5-10kts this afternoon along with
some gusts to 15-17kts due to diurnal heating. Winds should remain
sustained between 5-10kts tonight into tomorrow morning with POU
likely breezier due to a stronger pressure gradient.


Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.


Cool and mainly dry conditions will persist through the
weekend, although isolated to scattered snow showers will be
possible tonight into Sunday morning as an upper level
disturbance moves across the region. Dry conditions with
slightly below normal temperatures expected early next week with
high pressure in control.


No hydrologic issues are anticipated into the middle of next
week, as mainly dry weather is expected. Isolated to scattered
snow showers are possible tonight into Sunday morning, with
little to no measurable precipitation.

A slow diurnal snowmelt will occur over the next several days,
with temperatures above freezing during the day and below
freezing at night. There will be little impact on the waterways
with minimal, if any, rises.

A moderating trend is then expected for the middle to latter
part of the upcoming work week, which may be accompanied by a
period of widespread rainfall. Runoff will likely increase
during this time, although it is uncertain how much rainfall
will occur. River rises are likely during this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.




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