Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 171847

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
247 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Dry, chilly weather will be with us through Monday, as high
pressure remains in control. We`re still watching a potential
east coast storm for Tuesday. At this time, however, it appears
that most of the snow, may miss our region to the south.


245 pm update... Other than some lingering stratocumulus clouds
across our far northern areas, a mainly sunny, but chilly day
continues across CNY/NEPA. This should lead into a clear, cold
evening period. As winds quickly subside after sunset,
temperatures should fall rapidly, given the cold, dry air mass
in place and the existing snow cover.

One potential wild card overnight is whether or not some cloud
debris, currently up over Lake Superior, ends up making it to NY
and PA. There are conflicting model signals in this regard, but
given the dry nature of the resident air mass, we`ll side
towards the less cloud cover scenario. This would also produce a
longer period of radiational cooling, likely leading to some
very cold readings prior to daybreak. For this reason, we
undercut a consensus of higher resolution temperature guidance
by several degrees, and indicated some near zero readings later
tonight over our northeastern zones (Oneida, Madison, Otsego,
and Chenango counties). Even hilltop and urban areas should drop
well down into the teens.


250 pm update... Expansive surface high pressure, nosing down
out of central/eastern Canada, will keep us dry and fairly cold
during this period.

The passage of another weak short-wave and surface trough in the
prevailing NW flow pattern aloft on Sunday, could produce some
patchy cloudiness, especially across our northern zones.
However, that is about all that would alter a clear-partly
cloudy stretch, with persistent below normal temperatures for
mid to late March.

Daytime highs both days should range from the upper 20s-upper
30s, with a few lower 40s possible in the normal milder valleys
of the Finger Lakes region and NEPA. Overnight lows Sunday will
be cold again, generally dropping into the single digits and


Latest medium range models are continuing to trend farther south
with the potential mid week winter storm. The ECMWF is farther
south than the GFS which would only give light amounts of
snowfall to the far southeast forecast area. The ECMWF is a
total miss. On Tuesday a mid level wave moves off the mid
Atlantic coast with the surface reflection just brushing the far
southeast forecast area. Another wave digging on the back side
of the upper level trough Tuesday night initiates a secondary
surface low off the southeast coast. This system moves off the
southeast coast on Wednesday and remains well south and east of
the local area. This is a very complex system due to the upper
level waves, much uncertainty still exists. Will continue
mention in the HWO but for only much of northeast Pennsylvania
and the western Catskills. In general have backed off on the
pops Tuesday through Wednesday with low chance pops northeast
Pennsylvania and the western Catskills with slight chance
elsewhere. Thursday through Saturday looks primarily dry with a
persistent upper level trough over the northeast and high
pressure over eastern Canadian.

The extended period will remain cold with lows generally
running in the teens to lower 20s and high in the 30s.


Given a dry air mass in place within the lower levels of the
atmosphere, we expect VFR to continue through at least 18z
Sunday, and very likely beyond.

As for the winds, they`ll stay gusty out of the NW for the rest
of the daylight hours (gusts of up to 25-30 kt). Winds will then
diminish quickly from about 00-02z this evening.


Sunday night through Monday night...VFR.

Tuesday through Thursday...We expect mostly VFR to continue.
However, there is still a chance of restrictions in snow at KAVP
on Tuesday, as a storm system moves by to our south.




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