Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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507
FXUS64 KBRO 261728 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1228 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Broad high pressure will spread over the area with a
light onshore flow. Low level moisture remains in place under an
isothermal layer. Ceilings will tend to fill in and lower this
evening, resulting in MVFR conditions through mid Friday when
drier air mixes down from aloft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 545 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...MVFR conditions are occurring at the aerodromes right
now with low clouds in place and light winds at the surface. VFR
is likely to develop today with winds veering courtesy of surface
high pressure moving off towards the east.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/

SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Widespread convection which
affected the area late Wednesday has exited the region, and a cold
front has nearly passed through the entire BRO CWFA. A northwest-to-
southeast 500 mb flow overhead, coupled with a flow at the surface
from the northeast in the wake of the front, will produce dry
conditions today and early tonight. However, the passage of a weak
500 mb shortwave will produce a batch of isolated showers late
tonight through Friday morning. Dry weather will resume Friday
afternoon in the wake of the shortwave. Near normal daytime high and
overnight low temperatures are forecast during the period due to the
passage of the cold front.

LONG TERM (Friday night through Wednesday): 500mb ridging will be
in place over the Central and Southern Plains this weekend with
deep low pressure over the east and west coasts of the United
States. At the surface, a high will move into Southeast TX with a
cold front likely weakening north of our area on Saturday. Decent
moisture will move over the region with model time-heights showing
60 to 70% RH below 500mb Saturday afternoon. Both the GFS and the
ECMWF bring a weak shortwave over the area, too, increasing the
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Late in the weekend the flow
gradually shifts out of the southwest as the western trough digs
into the Desert Southwest. Abundant moisture will remain over Deep
South Texas to bring isolated PoPs each day, but with no major
rainfall amounts expected.

Near-normal temperatures in the mid 80s this weekend will increase
into the 90s as southeast flow strengthens at the surface. A
storm system will deepen over the Central Plains to increase the
pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast Tuesday through
Wednesday.

MARINE (Now through Friday): Buoy 42020 reported northwest winds
around 8 knots gusting to around 10 knots with seas slightly under
2.5 feet with a period of 5 seconds at 250 CDT/750 UTC. Light to
moderate winds and low to moderate seas will prevail during the
period due to surface high pressure in the wake of a cold front.
Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely
to be needed.

Friday night through Tuesday: A surface high will move over the
western Gulf this weekend and result in weak flow with low seas of
1 to 3 feet. A storm system will develop in the Plains next week,
increasing the southeast winds across the coastal waters to
possibly Small Craft Advisory levels at times. Seas will also
build in response to 4 to 6 feet by Monday and push 7 feet
offshore on Tuesday.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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