Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 232042
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
442 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving area of low pressure will begin to affect the
region overnight, and the weather will remain unsettled for
most of the upcoming workweek.

Behind this system, an upper level trough will set up over the
eastern U.S. bringing the potential for showers and a
continuation of below normal temperatures into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SE flow very gradually moistening up the boundary layer this
afternoon as surface high slides off the East Coast. Dewpoints
have climbed into the 30s even with mixing layer up to around
5000ft. Maxes will peak in the upper 60s most locales. There is
some haze being reported at KSEG at 19z - this is from a plume
of smoke from a prescribed burn in Dauphin County.

Rain will likely reach my SWRN zones around or just before
midnight and continue to slowly spread NE into the Central
Mountains through Tuesday morning. Lows fall into the 40s
tonight, with upper 30s along the northern and northeast
counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A slow moving upper low will crawl eastward on Tuesday, reaching
the central Appalachians/SRN Ohio Valley by Tuesday evening.
With the upper low weakening, the surface reflection is progged
to be a rather anemic low which will lead to a forecast of high
POPs but generally light QPF. Worded forecast for periods of
mainly light rain overspreading the entire forecast area before
the day is over. Temps will stay cool as the light precip
adiabatically cools the lower levels, so highs will struggle
just into the 50s.

Main area of precip swings across mainly eastern sections Tue
night keeping PoPs high before tapering off from west to east
overnight. Another upper low reinforces showery weather heading
into Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Light rain is expected to continue into Wednesday before
tapering off Wednesday night into Thursday. The Thursday night
to Saturday period may be somewhat unsettled with several
disturbances aloft (embedded in the mean upper trough) move
quickly through the region, offering potential/low confidence
for rain showers. The departure of the upper trough will likely
promote a drying trend by Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will
average near to slightly below average during most of the
period before trending noticeably warmer into the first week of
May.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure just east of Pennsylvania will ensure VFR
conditions across central Pa through this evening. The only
possible exception may be at KIPT early this evening. Tracking a
plume of smoke from a prescribed burns in Dauphin/Lebanon
counties, which could briefly lower vis at KIPT through about
22Z.

Expect deteriorating flying conditions from SW to NE tonight,
as low pressure approaches from the southeast states. Biggest
impacts will be over the Laurel Highlands tonight and the
western half much of Tuesday before working into the east later
in the day. Rain will likely reach SWRN zones around or just
before midnight and continue to slowly spread NE into the
Central Mountains through Tuesday morning.

Bukfit soundings indicate there will be southeasterly gusts of
15-20kts this afternoon in the vicinity of KJST/KAOO, with
slightly lighter winds further north and east. Winds pickup
again on Tue.

Outlook...

Tue...Rain/low cigs becoming likely.

Wed...AM rain/low cigs likely, then improving.

Thu...AM low cigs possible W Mtns.

Fri...PM showers/cig reductions possible, mainly west.

SAT...Showers/cig reductions possible, mainly NW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
April 2018 currently ranks in the top 10 coldest on record
(through the 22nd). Seasonable temperatures are expected through
the end of the month which should help to balance the cold
start.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/RXR
CLIMATE...



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