


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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231 FXUS62 KFFC 160530 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 130 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Key Messages: - Scattered to more widespread showers and thunderstorms expected through the evening into the overnight (3pm-2am) with main threats being gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. - Isolated to scattered storms again tomorrow with the same threats as today. - Temps beginning to heat up tomorrow with heat indices between 100-105. Discussion: For today, high pressure remains to our west while Invest 93L just pushed into the Florida pan handle near St Augustine. This has resulted in a convergence zone along the I-85 corridor where a cu field has already begun popping with thunderstorms. This is expected to increase in coverage through the overnight (2am) with the main threats being gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Current SPC mesoanalysis shows 4000 sfc cape in the area with little to no shear so these storms will definitely have enough energy to form but likely won`t have too much movement which could become a concern with PWATs currently at 1.8-1.9". HREF guidance has come down a little with the 90th percentile showing 2-3" over 6 hours with the mean ~0.5-1". Will need to keep an eye on flooding concerns in this area but overall as long as the storms move, shouldn`t be to much of a threat. For tomorrow, rain chances shift to central Georgia as the low pressure system moves across Florida. This area is more likely to see any waves of precip with forecasted PWATs continuing to be ~2" with this tropical environment. Main threats again are gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. With the rainfall though, despite temps in the low to mid 90s, should see heat indices stay in the 100-105 range. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Monday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Key Messages: - Diurnally-driven, scattered thunderstorms will continue through the long term. - Oppressive July temperatures and humidity will allow Heat Index values soar above 105 near 110 degrees in east central Georgia over the weekend. Models are in agreement with a tropical disturbance moving across north Florida this afternoon and out over the northern Gulf early Wednesday. This feature is expected to track west over the next 48- hours and over southern Louisiana on Thursday. While not expected to pose a direct threat to Georgia, this disturbance will provide sufficient moisture to the region, promoting a very dirty-ridge pattern over the area as subtropical ridge remains in place. As a result, expect diurnally-driven isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue through the weekend. Although the threat of severe storms is low in this pattern, sufficient moisture and surface heating could produce a few strong storms. And given the moisture, any training or slow moving storms could pile up the rainfall. Though most areas will see less than a half inch daily, localized downpours could produce 1-2 inches. For the weekend - and already a concern - is the warming temperature trends, particularly over portions of central and eastern Georgia. At this time, forecast high temperatures Friday through Sunday are well into the mid to upper 90s, with a few places approaching 100. The combination of these temperatures, humidity, and sunny conditions will produce extremely high Heat Index values and WBGT values. Based on the latest forecast, Heat Advisories would be necessary for some of the area beginning Friday. 31 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Showers in north Georgia continue to diminish. Spotty VFR, MVFR and potentially IFR each night to early morning. Low Cigs this morning mostly northeast and south of metro though few to sct 005 to 015 is possible between 10z and 14z. Iso to sct thunderstorms possible tomorrow afternoon between 18z and 00z. Low cigs return after 06Z Thursday. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium confidence cigs coverage this morning. Medium confidence thunderstorm coverage today. High confidence all other elements. SM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 72 91 73 93 / 30 20 20 30 Atlanta 75 91 75 93 / 30 20 10 30 Blairsville 67 86 68 87 / 40 40 30 50 Cartersville 74 94 73 94 / 20 20 10 30 Columbus 75 92 74 93 / 20 50 10 40 Gainesville 72 89 74 91 / 40 20 20 30 Macon 73 92 73 94 / 10 30 10 30 Rome 73 94 73 93 / 20 20 10 30 Peachtree City 72 91 72 93 / 30 20 10 30 Vidalia 75 93 75 95 / 10 30 10 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....31 AVIATION...SM