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000
FXUS62 KFFC 191853
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
253 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

A synoptic analysis around 18z today revealed deep troughing across
the northeastern US...with a ridge present across the central US.
This places the SE in the transition zone between these two features
with weak NW flow aloft. At the sfc...cold front essentially has
pushed thru the CWA with strong CAA building into its wake along
with gusty NW winds.

Rest of today and thru tonight: the few-scattered cumulus clouds
across northwest and central Georgia will dissipate this evening
leaving clear skies thru the overnight. In addition...wind gusts
will diminish as the pressure gradient slowly attempts to relax.
Given clear skies...temps will drop into 30s and 40s. The coldest
temps will reside across north Georgia and given the relaxing wind
speeds...northeast Georgia still has best chance for seeing freezing
temps. Therefore...Freeze Warning will remain in effect for Fannin
Union and Towns counties overnight tonight into early Friday.

Friday: Abundant sunshine will persist under the influence of lower
level high pressure and mid level ridging building in from the west
as a strong cyclone moves into 4 Corners region. This should allow
temps to moderate a bit better as CAA diminishes. However...given
such dry and warmer conditions...fire weather will be a concern.
Will likely need a Fire Danger Statement for tomorrow given min Rh
values under 25 percent and dry fuels. Pleasant conditions should
finish out the short term with low temps overnight Friday warmer
than Thursday night.

Kovacik


.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
The onset of the long-term period on Saturday will bring the
last of the dry and sunny days for quite some time before the
next story system arrives on Sunday. Models are in considerably
better agreement regarding the arrival of rainfall during the day
on Sunday. Monday continues to look cool and wet as the closed low
lingers across the southeast and the wedge noses into the state.
Introduced a slight chance of thunder across portions of central
Georgia on Monday given a slightly more northerly trend of the
track of the surface low, though overall instability still appears
relatively limited. Given the persistent rainfall, forecast
rainfall totals Sunday through Tuesday look fairly impressive with
totals of 2-3" not out of the question for some locations. The
previous long-term discussion follows.

RW

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /Issued 429 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018/

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

High pressure will continue to dominate the sensible weather to
start the long term. The high will shift east, becoming anchored
across the mid-atlantic region. The high will nose down into
north GA Saturday into early Sunday ahead of the next storm
system. Models are really trying to come into better agreement and
they do look to converge a bit more than the previous run. Both
the GFS and ECM bring in ample rain across the region to start
the first half of next week. The timing is still up in the air
with the GFS solution being more progressive, bringing in
widespread rain across most of GA by Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile
the ECM really doesn`t bring in rain until Sunday night. Either
way, both system are similar in that they are closed lows as they
work east into the SE states. With strong isentropic lift and
overrunning precipitation with the surface high still nosing down
into the region Sunday into Monday, this will make for a very wet
and dreary day on Monday across much of north and central GA. The
wedge will be reinforced by the precipitation helping to keep
temperature quite cool, especially for those in north GA. The
system begins to lose its structure aloft becoming ingested into
the next digging trough. This will result in conditions improving
late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal through the long term,
with the coolest day being Monday.

26

FIRE WEATHER...
In the wake of Thursday`s frontal passage...a dry airmass will
continue to build into the area thru Friday. As heights aloft
being to rise...temps will recover nicely with highs in the 60s
and 70s forecast Friday afternoon. With warmer temps within dry
airmass...dewpoint depressions will become rather
significant...allowing min RH values to drop under 25 percent for
a large portion of north and central Georgia Friday afternoon into
the early evening. Also given dry fropa...fuels remain dry at
generally 8% or less. This would meet Fire Danger criteria and
will likely need to issue one on the evening shift. Only holding
off for now to avoid confusion between the one already valid for
this afternoon.

Kovacik

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
The cold front has passed thru all TAF sites with gusty NW winds
between 20-25kts. Expect gusts to continue until the sun sets
where they will then range 6-12kts. A wind shift will occur
overnight around 07z-09z to the NE and then pick up again after
sunrise at 9-12kts. MCN and CSG could gust towards 20kts. Winds
should begin to decrease to 10kts or less Friday afternoon. Aside
from a few cu this afternoon across ATL sites and MCN...clear
skies will prevail thru the rest of this TAF cycle.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          40  69  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         43  68  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     32  67  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    38  69  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        45  71  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     40  68  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           43  70  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            39  69  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  40  69  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         48  70  46  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for the following
zones: Fannin...Towns...Union.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Kovacik