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000
FXUS62 KILM 231035
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
635 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore and allow for a gradual warmup
until a back door cold front arrives Wednesday night. High
pressure will build in Thursday into Friday with gradual warming
for the weekend into early next week as the high shifts off of
the east coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Light winds across the area this morning are the result of high
pressure centered across the western Carolinas. This high should
push east to the coast by noon today, then will slip offshore this
afternoon. Aside from a little thin cirrus from time to time, skies
should remain sunny today. Mixing heights of 6000+ feet should mix
down drier air with dewpoints dipping into the mid 30s for many
inland areas this afternoon. With forecast highs in the lower 70s,
this should result in relative humidity falling below 30 percent.
Fortunately with such light winds expected there are no fire weather
concerns.

As the high moves farther offshore tonight, the pressure gradient
should tighten up as a cold front approaches the central
Appalachians. A moderate low level jet with 1000-1500 foot AGL winds
increasing to 25-30 knots should maintain a turbulent boundary layer
overnight and forecast lows are only in the upper 40s inland and
lower 50s near the coast, about 10 degrees warmer than what is
currently being experienced this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As high pressure moves farther offshore on Wed, a warmer
southwesterly return flow will develop and help warm things up
with high temps back up around normal...close to 80. It will
start out very dry with pcp water values close to .3 inches but
as the day progresses, there will be an increase in clouds from
the NW ahead of a cold front. Overall, the forcing remains weak,
but there may be enough moisture between 5k to 15k ft to produce
a stray shower or two by Wed eve, but for now will keep any pcp
out of the forecast.

The cold front moves offshore overnight with showers possible
over the waters into the early morning hours. High pressure will
build down from the Great Lakes on Thurs with little in the way
of clouds, but temps will be slightly cooler with highs
reaching into the 70s. Overnight lows both Wed night and Thurs
night will be down toward 50 inland and several degrees warmer
along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridge builds up along the east coast Fri through early next
week with a general warming trend through the weekend into
early next week. Temps will reach the mid 70s to around 80 most
days. There will be some clouds periodically a slight increase
in moisture, but ridge aloft will help maintain a mainly rain-
free period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR should dominate over the coming 24 hours. Any spotty
visibility restrictions in ground fog at KLBT and KFLO should
be ending by 12z.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Wednesday. There is a low
probability of MVFR ceilings Wednesday night associated with
the next cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
High pressure is centered across western North and South
Carolina this morning and should migrate eastward to the coast
by noon, then will move offshore this afternoon. Decreasing
north to northeast winds this morning should veer southeast to
south this afternoon in a combination of weak synoptic return
flow plus local seabreeze winds due to 10+ degree marine-to-
inland air temperatures differences today. As the high moves
farther offshore tonight and a cold front approaches the central
Appalachians, a belt of stronger southwest winds will develop
along the Carolina coast. Speeds should increase to a solid 15
knots with choppy 3-4 foot seas developing overnight.

Wednesday through Saturday...
SW winds will increase through Wed around high pressure
offshore and approaching cold front. Expect gusts up to 25 kts
with some 5 fters present, but overall 2 to 4 ft seas will
continue through much of the period. Winds shift around to the
N-NE behind front early Thurs as high pressure builds down
behind cold front. Winds will become onshore over the weekend
around 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/RGZ