Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
539 FXUS62 KILM 160624 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 224 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Should see increasing heat risk late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Typical summer day with afternoon showers/storms. There is still some question on coverage as formation will be more with smaller scale features, but thoughts are that things will start to form along the sea breeze and then graduate more towards along outflow boundaries. No severe weather is anticipated but rain may be heavy at times. Activity will calm down into tonight where confidence on fog is low given a persistent southerly breeze. Highs near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... At the sfc, a southerly return flow around the Bermuda High will continue. Ridge will continue to build in the mid levels with H5 heights increasing to 596 dam and deep westerly downslope flow in the low to mid levels by Fri. High temps in the in the 90 to 95 range on Thurs will increase further to 94 to 98 range on Fri. This will lead to increasing heat risk and potential for a Heat Advisory. Lows in the mid to upper 70s will not provide much relief at night. May see a front/trough run by to the north Fri night, but ridge should keep convection limited for the most part. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Hot and humid weather will continue into the weekend with temps well into the 90s. Expect potential for heat headlines to continue. By Sunday, the ridge gets suppressed a bit to the south with shortwave riding by to the north. May see lingering trough/front helping to increase chc of convection over the Carolinas into early next week with heat letting up a bit and diminishing chc of heat risk or headlines. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR/IFR stratus possible tonight as lower clouds move onshore to inland through the morning. The coverage will be the main question, so have left things SCT but momentary filling in of CIGs may be possible here and there. Otherwise, afternoon showers and storms will bring spotty restrictions to terminals with clearing expected tonight. Low confidence on fog and stratus towards the end of the period, but stratus may again be possible. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Southerly winds generally 10-15 kts, highest in the afternoon. Seas generally 3-4 ft with a SSE swell at 2-4 ft and 6 seconds. Thursday through Sunday...Bermuda High will maintain SW winds up to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts, especially in aftn sea breeze near shore. Seas will mainly be in the 3 to 4 ft range. A longer period SE swell will mix in. A front/trough will drop southward Fri night into the weekend with winds turning slightly more WSW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...LEW MARINE...RGZ/LEW