Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 211934

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
234 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

High pressure to our east will only slowly drift away from the
area tonight as low pressure over Texas shifts east with time
tonight and Sunday. The easterly flow across the area continues
to bring in some very dry air into the region which should help
retard the northward advancement of rain into our area, at least
from late tonight into Sunday morning with better rain chances
moving in over southeast Illinois by afternoon.

With the extensive cloud cover and winds holding up some tonight,
overnight lows will only drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Despite the cloud cover and east winds continuing on Sunday, we
shouldn`t see too much of a change temperature-wise as afternoon
readings climb into the low to mid 60s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

The closed upper low at 500 mb will pass well south of the area
on Sunday with our southeast counties close enough to warrant the
higher rain chances heading into Sunday night. On Monday, a
shortwave dropping southeast out of the Northern Plains may act
to bring the Ohio Valley low a bit further to the north Monday and
Monday night resulting in a further northward shift in rain
chances with 30 POPs or higher along and east of I-55. By Tuesday,
as the Ohio Valley low edges off to our east, the rain threat
will linger over the east for a time Tuesday before moving out,
however the wave to our northwest will shift southeast into the
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday bringing another threat for
showers to the area, especially south of Interstate 72.

The Wednesday shortwave will shift off to our east and south
Wednesday night as another disturbance digs southeast into the
Northern Plains bringing at least slight chances for showers on
Thursday. Models having a tough time with the amplitude and speed
of this system as the latest ECMWF is more amplified and a bit
slower than the operational GFS. Model consensus suggests low
chance POPs Thursday night into Friday morning as the upper level
wave and attendant frontal system shifts across the Midwest.
Temperatures for the most part will be close to normal for the
upcoming week (daytime highs) with a brief cool down noted behind
the wave late Thursday into Friday, before modifying again for at
least the start of next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the forecast area
through the period. Scattered to broken mid level clouds
(10000-15000 ft AGL) coupled with bkn-ovc cirrus will continue to
stream across the area through tonight as a storm system passes
south of our area this weekend. Precipitation chances will be
quite limited, other than possibly a few sprinkles across our far
southern areas on Sunday. Surface winds will continue from an
easterly direction at 10 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting up near
20 kts this afternoon, around 10 kts tonight with an east wind
continuing on Sunday at 10 to 15 kts.




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