Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 241945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
345 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018


...Locally Heavy Rainfall Expected over the Holiday Weekend...

Tonight...Low level ESE will veer to the SE overnight with late
afternoon convection moving across western portions of east central
FL into early evening. Will continue a low shower chance for Lake
county past 8 pm. Short range guidance indicates an increase in
deeper moisture over the Atlantic and an uptick in SE flow to near
15 knots at the surface. This should allow regeneration of showers
and isolated storms across the Atlantic some which will move onshore
along the coast during the late night hours.

Friday...An area of deeper moisture will lift northward with low
level southeast flow. PWATs will range from 1.8-1.9 across the
northern counties and 1.9-2.0 inches across the south. A weak
inverted trough in the low levels and developing slightly stronger
low level SE flow should support scattered to numerous showers and
isolated storms moving northwestward with the highest coverage
expected across the srn interior. Highs will range from the mid 80s
south to upper 80s across nrn interior sections.

Late week/Weekend (modified)...Developing low pressure is forecast
to slowly emerge over the southern Gulf of Mex from the Yucatan area
by late Friday and track Nwd over the central to eastern gulf
through Sunday. Guidance continues to vary with GFS indicating most
eastward track compared to consensus, though 12z GFS has trended
much closer to recent ECMWF model runs. With NHC giving the
disturbance a 90 percent likelihood of becoming a named system over
the next 5 days adt`l monitoring for severe weather potential other
than expected heavy rains will be necessary should the actual track
become closer to the peninsula this holiday weekend. Rain chances
mainly in the likely range Saturday will become categorical near 80
percent Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall is expected with showers and
storms Saturday, into Sunday and Memorial Day.

With this most favored wet season forecast regime continuing over
already rain soaked grounds in many places. A Flood Watch will be
likely for portions of east central FL by late this week.

Extended...From Tuesday through midweek a minimum of sct coverage of
showers and storms will continue with sly flow pattern indicated and
plenty of available moisture to generate diurnally forced pcpn. Rain
soaked grounds will continue to bring a sensitive period well into
next week depending on where the daily rain potential becomes
focused due to boundaries interaction and locations of heavy rain.


Shower activity is shaping up like yesterday with lower coverage,
especially across the northern areas. A line of showers did develop
along the sea breeze earlier today in the Treasure Coast from KVRB-
KSUA, but those showers have since moved inland. Coastal terminals
should remain mostly clear this afternoon, although a stray shower
is still possible along the Treasure Coast. I am keeping VCSH at all
terminals through 24/24Z due to isolated showers moving onshore
along the coast or developing over inland areas. Removed VCTS from
the interior TAFs due to lower probability of storms this afternoon.
HRRR and local WRF models indicate any shower activity should
dissipate after sunset and VFR conditions will prevail through
Friday morning. With higher rain chances in the forecast we should
see higher coverage of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
Friday afternoon. Gusty conditions are also possible on Friday after
25/14Z, mainly from KMLB-KSUA.


Tonight...Southeast winds near 10 knots will increase to 10-15 knots
offshore overnight with scattered showers and isolated storms
redeveloping across the waters through the late night hours. Seas
will range from 2-3 ft nearshore to 3-4 ft offshore.

Friday...Southeast winds at 10-15 knots in the morning will increase
to 15 knots in the afternoon with deeper tropical moisture moving
northward across the into the afternoon. Expect scattered showers
and storms. Seas 2-3 ft near shore to 3-4 ft offshore.

Late Week/Weekend...Winds and seas are forecast to increase Fri
night and into Sat with the likelihood of headlines for hazardous
wind and sea states over most if not all of the waters this weekend.
Should the Gulf system approach closer to the state then presently
forecast higher winds and seas will be likely.

Extended...Improving conditions from around Tuesday onward next week
are anticipated as gradient winds diminish along with swell.


DAB  72  83  70  83 /  20  40  20  40
MCO  72  87  71  82 /  10  50  30  60
MLB  74  84  74  81 /  30  50  30  60
VRB  73  83  72  82 /  40  50  40  60
LEE  73  88  71  82 /  20  60  30  60
SFB  72  87  70  82 /  10  50  20  60
ORL  73  88  70  82 /  10  50  30  60
FPR  72  83  73  81 /  40  50  40  70




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