Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 290902
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
502 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Gulf Coast states and low pressure over
New England will provide windy weather today. A backdoor front
edges south toward the area Easter Sunday, remaining in the area
into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1. Wind Advisory For The Alleghanys into the Roanoke/New River
Valley and Blue Ridge

Numerical models favor a breezy/windy scenario today, though
wind studies indicate that will be marginal unless we mix up to
750-700 mb. Indications show potential and winds this high will
be in the 35-45 kt range. Will leave wind advisory in place
where it is as good mixing will occur from 12z-23z today.

Shortwave moving across the Alleghanys this morning could bring
a few showers rain/snow but nothing of consequence.

As low pressure moves further away the gradient relaxes tonight,
with winds abating.

Highs today will be seasonal with upper 50s to around 60 west to
mid to upper 60s east.

Clear skies tonight but enough wind and some warm advection for
lows to be in the 40s.

Forecast confidence is high on temperatures/sky cover/pops, but
moderate on winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1). Period of Unsettled Weather Conditions Begins to Evolve
Saturday.

2). Above Normal Temperatures Expected Through the Period.

The flow aloft will become increasingly zonal through the period
with broad upper ridging across the southeastern U.S. resulting
in rising heights and temperatures aloft as well. The models
have been very consistent in depicting a mid-level disturbance
which tracks from west to east across the Ohio Valley on
Saturday, along which a frontal boundary/baroclinic zone
develops. A cluster of convection is slated to develop in
association with this fast moving disturbance and track across
northern WV/MD/PA Saturday. Model confidence in this pattern
developing is high given the considerable consistency from run-
to-run. In so doing, it will help to push the baroclinic zone
further south going into Sunday, eventually reaching the I-64
corridor. Additional rounds of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will develop Sunday in the vicinity of this
baroclinic zone, although at this point the atmosphere only
weakly supports thunder, mainly from a thermodynamic standpoint,
not dynamics.

Moving into Monday, the baroclinic zone/frontal boundary will
begin to push back to the north as the upper ridge amplifies
further across the eastern U.S. in response to a stronger
weather system tracking northeastward from the Southern Plains
and into the Midwest. Thus, the chance for precipitation will
begin to focus further north, mainly north of I-64 once again.

Any precipitation through the time frame of this forecast period
will be light with relatively limited moisture, westerly flow,
and highly kinematic disturbances embedded within the westerly
flow aoft. In addition, the main dynamics will remain north/west
of the area through the period.

Temperatures will trend warmer through the time frame of this
forecast period as 500mb heights close in on 580dm and 850mb
temperatures sore to near +15C. This will result in well above
normal maximum and minimum temperatures in the 40s/50s to the
70s, respectively, which are on average 10-15 degrees above
normal.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate Confidence in Temperatures,
- Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed,
- Low Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Stronger Weather System Brings Showers/Thunderstorms to the
Region Tuesday into Wednesday.

2) Much Cooler Temperatures Return for Late Week

The synoptic pattern will become increasing progressive during
the extended period as an upper trough shifts eastward from the
Midwest. The trough will encounter the upper ridge across the
southeastern U.S. and be shunted more into the Ohio Valley and
Northeastern U.S. with time, but will still be strong enough to
push a stronger cold front through the forecast area by
Wednesday. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will
accompany this system. Brooks-Craven values reach values as high
as 25000, indicating good potential for at least thunder with
this activity. MAV MOS thunderstorm pops are the highest I have
seen so far this year, reaching values as high as 44% Tue-Wed.
However, there are indications that the forecast area may be
split between stronger convection to our northwest with the main
upper dynamics and redevelopment of low pressure along the
southeast coast in association with a southern stream short
wave, leaving the RNK CWA in a weaker forcing area and thus less
precipitation and less potential for thunder.

At any rate, in the wake of this intensifying low pressure area
to our north, look for gusty winds and much cooler temperatures
by Thursday as 850mb temperatures plummet from the warm +12C or
better readings early in the week to perhaps as cold as -8C by
the end of the week. Surface temperatures will respond and fall
back to normal or even a bit below normal levels by the end of
the week with freezing temperatures possible in the colder
valleys west of the Blue Ridge and in the mountains of the west
by Friday.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate Confidence in Temperatures,
- Moderate to High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Friday...

Aviation conditions will be fine in terms of ceilings/vsbys with
some bkn VFR 3-5kt cigs possible at LWB this morning.

Winds will be the main issue especially after 12z as northwest
winds gust to 30-40kts at times around ROA/BCB/BLF/LWB and
lesser but still gusty at LYH/DAN.

These winds will slacken off after 23z/00z.

Above average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and moderate
on wind.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Another front approaches from the north this weekend bringing
another chance of showers and possible sub-VFR conditions,
moreso over the mountains. Better chance for sub-VFR with
showers, possible storms Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 123 AM EDT Friday...

Another good day of drying today as northwest winds will be
gusting to 25 mph or higher most of the day. RH values will drop
to 30 percent or lower across southern VA into the NC piedmont
east of the Blue Ridge and 30-35 percent over most of the
National Forest areas. Will likely coordinate with Forest
Service officials for any enhanced fire danger statements.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ011-014-
     017>020-022>024-033>035.
NC...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ044-507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/WP
FIRE WEATHER...WP


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