Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 232343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
743 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Only major change to the forecast was to issue a red flag
warning again tomorrow for some counties. Moisture is
slowly returning to the area meaning we will see slightly
higher humidity values for tomorrow. However, a few spots
will once again meet the threshold of below 35 percent
humidity for more than four hours with high ERCs.


VFR conditions are expected through the period with winds
becoming light overnight, then turning more south to
southeasterly direction tomorrow.


.Prev Discussion... /issued 246 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight-Saturday)...
High pressure centered just to the NW of the area today will
settle over the state tonight, and then shift east to over
the Atlantic for Saturday. Winds will become light
overnight with clear skies allowing temperatures to drop
into the lower to mid 40s north, and in the upper 40s to
upper 50s elsewhere. Winds will then turn to the E/SE for
Saturday with a sea breeze developing near the coast in the
afternoon. Highs will reach into the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Moisture will moderate some for Saturday afternoon, but a
few hours of critical humidities will still be possible
across much of the area.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night - Friday)...
Dry northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure from the
western Atlantic extending west across the south-central
peninsula will maintain pleasant dry weather with a south to
southwest wind flow over the region through Sunday night
with near to slightly above normal temperatures expected. On
Monday deepening low pressure over the Atlantic will pull a
back-door type cold front southwest toward west central
Florida during the day. Adequate moisture may support some
isolated showers (Pops 20 percent) along the front over
mainly interior and northeastern portions of the forecast
area during the afternoon before it washes it as surface
high pressure to the north bridges across it with a breezy
northeast to easterly wind flow developing.

Tuesday through Thursday upper level ridging building in
from the west combined with surface high pressure building
down the eastern sea board at the start of the period then
settling in over the western Atlantic during Wednesday and
Thursday will support pleasant dry weather across the entire
forecast area with mainly clear nights and partly cloudy
days expected with an easterly wind flow becoming southeast
to southerly by Thursday.

During Thursday night into Friday the upper level and
surface ridge will shift eastward into the Atlantic as an
upper level trough over the southern plains moves east into
the lower Mississippi valley with an attendant cold front
moving east through the Panhandle and into north Florida.
The front will then move southeast into west central Florida
during late Friday afternoon and night bringing with it the
next chance (Pops 30 to 50 percent) for showers and
isolated storms to the region.

Temperatures will be near seasonal norms through the period
with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s, with daytime highs
climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s each afternoon.

High pressure will move east over the state tonight and out
over the Atlantic for Saturday keeping light winds and
seas in place and turning winds from the N to the E/SE. The
ridge axis then shifts south Sunday as a frontal boundary
settles just to the north of the area and stalls. High
pressure to the north will then bridge down across the area,
with the pressure gradient tightening across the waters and
possibly allowing for some cautionary to advisory level
winds Monday night into Tuesday. Ridging then continues
through the rest of the period with no other headlines

Very dry conditions will continue through around 9PM this
evening. Winds will turn to a more easterly direction for
Saturday and allow moisture to start to moderate. A few
hours of critical humidities will still be possible across
much of the area Saturday afternoon, but conditions will not
get as dry as today. No concerns then through the rest of
the period.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  54  76  61  79 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  52  80  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  51  80  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  51  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  42  78  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  58  76  63  77 /   0   0   0   0


FL...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Pinellas-

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Manatee-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Pinellas-Polk.

Gulf waters...None.


UPPER AIR...14/Mroczka
DECISION SUPPORT...14/Mroczka is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.