Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 191745
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS...

The previous forecast remains on track and no changes are needed at
this time. See previous discussion below for more details.

..Leitman.. 04/19/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/

...Synopsis...
A vigorous storm system will migrate eastward from the Four Corners
area into southern Colorado throughout the forecast period.  As this
occurs, strong mid-level flow will overspread areas of the southern
Rockies and adjacent High Plains.  At the surface, a lee
trough/dryline will sharpen throughout the day very near the New
Mexico/Texas border.  West of this dryline, fire weather potential
will be maximized in response to a persistently dry airmass and
gusty westerly surface flow.

...Southeastern Arizona eastward to the New Mexico/Texas border...
The combination of tightening of the surface pressure gradient
(associated with aforementioned deepening of the surface trough) and
vertical mixing processes will result in a broad area of westerly
flow across the region ranging from 10-20 mph in southern Arizona to
around 35 mph in far west Texas/southeastern New Mexico.  A
pre-existing dry airmass will remain in place, and surface heating
will result in lowered RH ranging from 15-25% in Arizona to around
5-7% immediately west of the surface trough.  Fuels should remain
dry across the region, although models suggest some potential for
localized areas of wetting rainfall from thunderstorms along the Rio
Grande Valley late on D1/Thursday.  Elevated and critical fire
weather delineations are in place to address these threats, although
some uncertainty exists with regard to eastward extent of
drying/mixing and trough position.  Conditions may exceed extreme
thresholds on a brief basis from southeastern New Mexico into the
TransPecos through the early evening, although the temporal/spatial
extent of this threat appears too limited for any upgrade at this
time.  This will be revisited in later outlooks.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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